States Predictions

[etrain11]

Indoor states is coming up soon, not too many more weekends left

Any predictions for the state meet?

[TheStubbornScotsman]

So, I think on both the boys and girls side there are some pretty heavy favorites.

Boys-
800- Willig. Assuming he does it, Ned is the guy to beat (assuming he is heathy)
Mile- See 800
3k- Wilson. Kids a beast. He really would have mixed it up last year two if he didn't concentrate on the DMR.

With that said some guys who could turn heads (not saying they will win or anything, just do better than expected).

800- Wil Bailey(Penn Hills). PH always has some great 800m guys. Bailey is no exception. A bit of a down XC season, but has really beat up on the TSTCA in the 800 this year. He cruised to a 1:57.3 then came back last weekend with a 4:26.2 Both are very close to his outdoor PR's from last season, and he is definitely upward trending. Will be interesting to see what he does at States. (800, 1600, or 4x8; or rather what combo he chooses, if not all).

1600- Bailey could be here too, but I already detailed him so....; the LaSalle guys. They ran a real strong 1500 a couple of weeks ago and looked strong at the PCL champs. They could end up concentrating on the DMR (which they have a good shot in, or the 3k, though). So, another guy to look at: Logan Steiner. Okay, 3k guy right? Well he ran a 4:23. 1600 this past weekend. Oh yeah, and NA has a pretty strong DMR, so he may shy away from the 3k to the mile to get more rest in between an individual event and the DMR. Note: Steiner hasn't qualified in the 3k, but may make it without based on having a fast non- qualifying time. Also he has another shot this weekend.

3K- Well, its really no secret, but Brendan Shearn could really tear it up. I am still of the opinion he was on the same level as any PIAA (aka no Wilson) guy in XC. He has thrown down two good (read 9:00 after getting knocked down, and 8:54, after doing most of the work at TSTCA) 3k, and really could improve alot with some good competition and another race (as he has been swimming alot). SO, I kinda of feel guilty picking Shearn, as he isn't a "shocker", so Ill go a bit deeper. Like guys that haven't qualified deeper. (Given only about 7 guys have qualified, one of which is Willig, and he probably wont run here). So, Ill stay in the TSTCA and go with a couple of sophomores: Caleb Wakeley and Ethan Martin. Both have been hovering around the mid to low 9:0X's for a couple of weeks, and should have one final shot this weekend. Caleb really made Shearn work hard for his win at TSTCA and was aggressive in the middle part of the race (moreso than Kuchta and a tired Steiner (DMR)).

Wow, that turned out to be rather long.
DMR- Not really sure here as teams (and individuals) have to decided what to do, but some big teams:

Great Valley (So, you say, okay captain obvious)
LaSalle ( NO S*** Sherlock, what was your first clue)
North Allegheny

NA is the "surprise" of the three. Well as much of a surprise as NA could be. NA used to be a mainly XC school (Taylor, Jacobs, Morgan, Balaban, etc, etc, etc.), but really have produced some great track times recently. They COULD run Steiner, Tonzo, and Bojarski on the 16, 12, and 8 legs. Reallly, thats a 4:23/ 9:24(jr.) guy, a 4:24 (jr.) 16 guy, and a 1:55 (jr.) 800 guy. Wow, talk about some depth. They don't have the Willig anchor leg, but they could really do well here if they decide to concentrate on it.

[2ndWind]

The 800 field is really the big field. Honestly, I dont think Ned will do the 8. The DMR is already trying to hold off other teams closing in, so if they are going for the win over in GV, I'd keep Ned in DMR mile and that's it. Coyle and Stone are pretty decent favorites of mine in the 8. I really like how they feed off each other. Joey Logue (spelling?) is also a pretty dangerous kid to watch as he, Nate Emmanual, Wil Bailey, and even Steve Yannacone could mix it up for a top spot. However, my favorite to win the 800 overall is Horgan. Drew out sick. Willig saving up for the DMR. Hardy opting for sprinting event. Horgan is my favorite. Not just because he has the fastest time of the guys I mentioned earlier, but also that he is just a very good tactical runner and can improve quickly. Yes, HGP has been known to fizzle out in the late season. Although I have something about Horgan that I like. Im calling it. Horgan to win the 800 state title.

[exquaker]

Yeah I like Horgan too
Also don't discount him leading off HGP dmr. He has posted 307 1200 and could give them a decent lead. With Kardish giving a good 800 Israel may be left with a lead to protect . Could hold up depending how tired great valley and lasalle are off their doubling.

[etrain11]

the states 800 should be an interesting field, im not quite sure Ned is going to run the 800 and I have never been completely sold that he wanted to put himself in a big hole for the dmr. it definitely seems like a team goal for over a year now, and i don't know if he will risk running the 8 in addition to the mile.

hardy may opt for the 8 over the 4, but i doubt that as well

i like horgan as a pick, he's a talent runner with some impressive indoor results

but my two big picks to compete for the win are andrew stone and ryun holder

i've been a big holder fan for a while and i think this may finally be his chance to shine

still a lot up in the air as to who will enter where

[etrain11]

Performance list is now up online, any predictions?

[TheStubbornScotsman]

Performance list is now up online, any predictions?

Willig wins the 800 :D