How fast will Solinsky run in Zürich?

[Zen Miler]

Discuss.

[okko]

if the race is a nice even pace and the weather is decent, i see the AR going down again. by like 1.5 seconds.

[RMMH91]

12:52. no faster, no slower

[eh000]

Imma say 12:57.

[okko]

Imma say 12:57.

oh look. a realist. you're kind is not wanted here

[bacon]

12:36

[kingcoe]

get cancer during the second lap of the race, go DNF

As a poster who has a sister and two good friends right now fighting cancer as well as an uncle, best friend and two grandparents who died of cancer I suggest you think about your sense of humor.

[Toughtothcore]

11:09.36. He's gonna break the mile world record at each split

[808runner]

poor pacing by rest of field=bad-ish time and bad luck for solinsky
or he is the beast he is and still runs a good time anyway...

[Cocakula]

12:52

[amw2829]

sub 12:50

[xcrunna]

Guessed 12:53, though I'll do a lot more research on the pacers and such (this will be crucial) before getting less of a gut-prediction when I commit to a number later. I think with decent pacing he'll run 12:53. With amazing, potentially faster. The thing that'll be interesting is with such a stacked and deep field what will transpire from 3,000 to 4,200m. It would probably behoove someone to set a decent pace or else it could be rough jockeying in a tight pack with high potential for some tangling and such. i think the biggest threat to Solinsky's time is just a crazy logjam of guys midway through the race as no one wants to take it on and be the sacrificial lamb.

[Zat0pek]

I'd really, really like to see him take down the AR. He's had two good opportunities to run fast this year and he's run 12:56 and 12:55, with the latter being just 1.4 off the AR. He's very, very close but that last 1.4 can be a real bitch at this level.

He's been running at a very high level since May. I hope he just has one more good one still in him, that he has good pacing from the gun and that he can run at least 12:54.11.

[cheesedoodles]

i said 12:52, that's the best i can see him running at this point in time... and that's a DAMN FAST time... funny how spoiled we're getting here in the US now that people actually voted for 12:50... just 2 years ago everyone would love to see a 13:05 5k guy from the US...

[McGonagall]

12:51 for second or third. Or hopefully first

[orthostice]

just 2 years ago everyone would love to see a 13:05 5k guy from the US...

Tegenkamp didn't count?

[xcrunna]

12:51 for second or third. Or hopefully first
It would be a tremendous achievement to finish in the top 3 in this field. If Bekele was here, you could even make the argument (and I might just later on in the blog) that it would be more of an accomplishment to do so than to finish top 3 in a world championship/olympic final that restrict the number of Kenyans and water it down a bit with the 10,000.
In this race you have:

Imane Merga(ETH)- 12:53 two weeks ago in Stockholm for his second 12:53 of the season, 5 times of 13:00 or faster in the 5K, 6 top 3 finishes in the DL (2 wins)
Eliud Kipchoge(KEN)- 2003 World Champion 5K and many time medalist, 12:51 from early in the season, 12:54 in Stockholm 2 weeks ago, 4 top 5 finishes in the DL (1 runner up, 1 win), 12:46 PB
Dejen Gebremeskel(ETH)- 12:53 runner up two weeks ago in Stockholm, runner up at Prefontaine, 20 years of age and having a breakthrough year
Vincent Chepkok(KEN)- 12:51 early on in the season, 4 top 5 finishes on DL (1 win, 1 runner-up), 12:58 in Stockholm two weeks ago with a fall according to Chris Solinsky
Tariku Bekele (ETH)- 12:53.97 earlier in the season, 4 top 5 finishes on DL (one win, one runner-up), 12:52 PB
Mark Kiptoo(KEN)- 12:53 victory in Stockholm, African Champs Bronze Medal
Moses Masai(KEN)- World's Best road 10K winner in 27:19 in February, 12:50/26:49 PB's, WC Bronze medalist (10K)
Jacob Chesari(KEN)- 12:59 win in Heusden
Edwin Soi(KEN)- African Championships 5,000 Gold Medalist, 12:52 PR, Olympic Bronze Medal
Vincent Yator(KEN)- African Championships 5000 Silver Medalist
Sammy Alex Mutahi(KEN)- 13:00 SB, runner up in Rome DL
Lucas Rotich(KEN)- 12:55 SB, 4'th in Oslo DLNow if I were to do one for Solinsky it would look like this:
Chris Solinsky(USA)- 12:55.53 in Stockholm, one top 5 in DL, 26:59 PB in 10,000 in 2010

Guys I haven't mentioned also include Mo Farah (Euro 5/10K double champ), Titus Mbishei(13:00 5K this season), David Kiprotich Bett(World Junior Champ -5K)

[cheesedoodles]

Tegenkamp didn't count?

then 3 years ago... you get my point though ;)

[Cocakula]

Kind of an off topic question:

When is the last time an American has won a 5000 in a golden league/diamond league meet?

[KevinM]

Kind of an off topic question:

When is the last time an American has won a 5000 in a golden league/diamond league meet?

Lagat won in London in 2006 and - fairly sure that was a GL meet. He also won in 2005 in Berlin.

Here are meets I found on alltime-athletics.com that were won by Americans in marks faster than 13:30 prior to GL/DL (plenty of these may have come at meets that have become much bigger or perhaps just happened to fall in the same city as one of the majors, e.g., a meet at Bislett Stadium other than the BGs). There are several other races won in places like Rieti, Malmo, etc., that may well have had fields of DL/GL quality, but this is all you get for free ;):

Maree in Brussels in 1989

Plascencia in Lausanne - 1987

Mark Nenow in Paris in 1986

Doug Padilla in Helsinki, Rome, and Zurich - 1985 (he ranked 2nd in the world that year behind Aouita)

Padilla in Oslo and Helsinki - 1983

Bill McChesney in Oslo - 1981

Liquori in Stockholm - 1978

Liquori in Zurich - 1977

Duncan MacDonald in Stockholm - 1976

Dick Buerkle in Oslo - 1974

[Show'EmTheRopes]

12:52. no faster, no slower

QFE thought the same

[fallout]

he will definitely break the AR

[orthostice]

then 3 years ago...

Keep going ...

[king99]

I find it amazing Solinsky has held on even this long, anything else is gravy.

Likeliehood to me of him breaking AR? Not very, but another solid performance.

I just do not know how many sub 13's plus a sub 27:00 one can have when they were never that close to it before.

Has to be stretching the edge just a bit.

But really great stuff.

[xcrunna]

excerpt:
"The Americans: So how will Americans Chris Solinsky and Galen Rupp do? First of all, in terms of race competitiveness I think Solinsky will be up there, but I think inevitably 3 or 4 guys will have a better finish than him. Call me a cynic, but I just see the power of numbers here. Against any one guy, Chris is a threat, but against this many good guys? Hard for me to see him better than 4'th. As for the time, I am very optimistic here. I think he will be able to find a good spot behind some of the aggressive Africans and come through in fast, but doable fractions. I'm going to guess the pacemaking will not be perfect, but very well may be a little better than in Stockholm. Thus I predict a 12:53 for Chris Solinsky and a 6'th place finish.


As for Rupp, he really came oh-so-close to PR'ing big in Stockholm before he tumbled to the track. He was hovering somewhere around 13:00-13:05 pace at that point, and I have to say he looked pretty comfortable. He was not on Solinsky's level as he could not go with whatever pace was being run at the front, but rather had to run his own tempo and hope the pace came back to him. To his credit, in the slower third and fourth kilometers the pace did come back to him and he attached himself to the back end of the lead pack. To his discredit, I don't think he could have shifted pace like the front guys did towards the end, had he not fallen. I'd be surprised if we see any closing lap 55's out of Rupp. Thus my prediction for Rupp is 13:04.


Overall Race Predictions: 1. Soi (upset special) 2. Merga 3. Gebremeskel 4. Kipchoge 5. Chepkok 6. Solinsky 7. T. Bekele 8. Chesari 9. Kiptoo 10. Masai
Winning Time 12:49!" from viewfromlane9.blogspot.com
I like Solinsky's chances for a great time this week, but I'm a little more cautious considering how deep & good the field is (which I discuss a lot before the American part)

[K-nat213]

12:52.28

[Zat0pek]

e I'm going to guess the pacemaking will not be perfect, but very well may be a little better than in Stockholm.

The pacemaking in Zurich is as good as any you will find on the Circuit.

[Show'EmTheRopes]

I find it amazing Solinsky has held on even this long, anything else is gravy.

Likeliehood to me of him breaking AR? Not very, but another solid performance.

I just do not know how many sub 13's plus a sub 27:00 one can have when they were never that close to it before.

Has to be stretching the edge just a bit.

But really great stuff.

Kinda reminds me of a few years back when Webb ran 1:43 (from a 1:45 PR), 3:30/3:46, 3:47... :D

[orthostice]

in terms of race competitiveness I think Solinsky will be up there, but I think inevitably 3 or 4 guys will have a better finish than him. Call me a cynic, but I just see the power of numbers here. Against any one guy, Chris is a threat, but against this many good guys? Hard for me to see him better than 4'th. As for the time, I am very optimistic here. I think he will be able to find a good spot behind some of the aggressive Africans and come through in fast, but doable fractions. I'm going to guess the pacemaking will not be perfect, but very well may be a little better than in Stockholm. Thus I predict a 12:53 for Chris Solinsky and a 6'th place finish.


As for Rupp, he really came oh-so-close to PR'ing big in Stockholm before he tumbled to the track. He was hovering somewhere around 13:00-13:05 pace at that point, and I have to say he looked pretty comfortable. He was not on Solinsky's level as he could not go with whatever pace was being run at the front, but rather had to run his own tempo and hope the pace came back to him. To his credit, in the slower third and fourth kilometers the pace did come back to him and he attached himself to the back end of the lead pack. To his discredit, I don't think he could have shifted pace like the front guys did towards the end, had he not fallen. I'd be surprised if we see any closing lap 55's out of Rupp. Thus my prediction for Rupp is 13:04.


Your 'power of numbers' theory is laughable man, ha ha! How Solinsky (or anyone else) would be less potent against 3-4 people as opposed to just one is beyond me, and ludicrous.

What rankles me here, and would surely rankle me more if someone put a gun to my head, stapled my eyelids open, and forced me to read this blog you keep shamelessly flogging, is that you opine without offering the reasoning behind your position - and it forces me to conclude that these baseless predictions and opinions must come from somewhere in the neighbourhood of your sigmoid colon as there's a plethora of data that could be used in support of any reasonable athletics-related statement.

How can you 'think' anything about the pacing in Zürich? As our friend Zat0pek reminds us:
The pacemaking in Zurich is as good as any you will find on the Circuit.
Wow, the Swiss don't fanny about when it comes to precision timing. Shock. This is something you can, and should, 'know.' Watch videos and look at results from previous years, find out who is doing the pacemaking this year and look up how they have fared in previous pacemaking gigs. It's not that hard.
The pacemaking in Zürich very well may be slightly better than it was at a HS meet in Uzbekistan, but then it very well may not be chortle chortle chortle.
Christ on a dirt bike. Come on man, you can do better than this.

And again with your opinions. Something you 'think' cannot be held to Rupp's 'discredit.' That's not how it works. The only things that can discredit Rupp are his own actions.
And as far as whether or not he's going to close in 55, he very well may not chortle chortle chortle (excuse me while I vomit in a bucket) but, again, his tendency to close or not close in excess of a certain speed can be backed up by looking at splits from prior races. Again, not that hard.
But of course, he can't close at all if he's "tumbled to the track" ho ho ho, back to Tom and Carol in the studio ...



Kinda reminds me of a few years back when Webb ran 1:43 (from a 1:45 PR), 3:30/3:46, 3:47... :D

... and was dragging ass in Osaka.

[Zen Miler]

bull**** rant

are you done?

[orthostice]

are you done?

http://www.gotbreastpump.com/images/milkSpill01.jpg

Now I am.

[Show'EmTheRopes]

are you done?

QFE ROFL.

file:///C:/Users/Vinny/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.pngfile:///C:/Users/Vinny/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-2.pngfile:///C:/Users/Vinny/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-4.png
file:///C:/Users/Vinny/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-3.png

EDIT: ^Fml n00b pwned :(

[Doc Awesome]

are you done censoring me? Maybe now we can settle this like men Zat0Pek

[Zat0pek]

are you done censoring me? Maybe now we can settle this like men Zat0Pek

I have no idea what you're talking about. I haven't touched a post of yours in weeks.

[xcrunna]

Alright was due for some criticism...so let's have it. I liked how when I did bring numbers against your assertion that an American 1500 medal was laughable, you didn't respond at all and hid behind your blanket statements.
Your 'power of numbers' theory is laughable man, ha ha! How Solinsky (or anyone else) would be less potent against 3-4 people as opposed to just one is beyond me, and ludicrous.

So, you think Solinksky has the same chance of beating 6 guys of relatively equal ability then he'd have of beating 2 or 3? My point is to beat about 9 guys of relative or superior talent in the field Solinsky needs some to be having a worse day than him or to not be in top form like I think he is. He's just another guy in there- in fact I put out numbers that show him to be on paper the 7'th or 8'th best guy there. Other variables can come into play, too. Do his competitors run a dumber race than him? Do they get involved in more jostling? My "power of numbers" idea is that I don't see every single one of the guys who has shown pretty clear superiority to Solinsky (Merga, T. Bekele, Gebremeskel, Kipchoge et al.) falling prey to any of those things. Some will, I believe, but not all. If you're too thick to understand that the larger and deeper a field is, the harder a challenge a mid-level talent (for the field) will have in finishing in the top 3...well I don't know where to start with you.

What rankles me here, and would surely rankle me more if someone put a gun to my head, stapled my eyelids open, and forced me to read this blog you keep shamelessly flogging, is that you opine without offering the reasoning behind your position - and it forces me to conclude that these baseless predictions and opinions must come from somewhere in the neighbourhood of your sigmoid colon as there's a plethora of data that could be used in support of any reasonable athletics-related statement.

You can be assured I look at all the data, and have watched and rewatched all the races as well. Still, I'm not going to bash everyone's head around by saying X athlete ran 54.65 to close his 5,000 in 12:56.78 while Y athlete ran 53.89 to close his 5000 in 12:59.76. You know why? That doesn't matter that much, and it's not interesting. If you want me to stare at numbers and repeat them than that's OK, but it's not interesting to me or anyone else. Or if you want me to back up every single one of my statements with the numbers and close watching of the race that I did, I'm just going to tell you that's fine, but the reading and writing would be boring. I can tell you I can bring out the rationale for almost everything I say. For example I wrote:
"Imane Merga has been a consistent contender in all of the DL races and has a frenetic kick that is one of the best."
I'm sure you'd lambast me for that one, but I could back it up with fact both from the eyeball test and numerous performances this season. It's not coming out of my ass though you seem incline to believe that.

How can you 'think' anything about the pacing in Zürich?
Wow, the Swiss don't fanny about when it comes to precision timing. Shock. This is something you can, and should, 'know.' Watch videos and look at results from previous years, find out who is doing the pacemaking this year and look up how they have fared in previous pacemaking gigs. It's not that hard.
The pacemaking in Zürich very well may be slightly better than it was at a HS meet in Uzbekistan, but then it very well may not be chortle chortle chortle.
Christ on a dirt bike. Come on man, you can do better than this.

Well, the pacemaking is not exactly knowledge they publicize. Only the meet director and the athletes and inside people know what pace is being asked for and who exactly the pacemakers are. I'm making presumptions, and that's why I "think" things and surely don't know them. I looked around at Birgen, I have not seen him recently pacing though I know I could have overlooked him. Additionally, the second pacemaker is just as important and it's unclear who that will be. The Swiss generally do a good job? Yes, maybe, but it's more on the pacemaker than the meet director. Even that is somewhat volatile. Khadevis Robinson is a good pacemaker, but he blew it in London. I have my expectations for what it will be like, but I spend more time discussing how it could affect the race than something which is very difficult to predict.

And again with your opinions. Something you 'think' cannot be held to Rupp's 'discredit.' That's not how it works. The only things that can discredit Rupp are his own actions.
And as far as whether or not he's going to close in 55, he very well may not chortle chortle chortle (excuse me while I vomit in a bucket) but, again, his tendency to close or not close in excess of a certain speed can be backed up by looking at splits from prior races. Again, not that hard.
But of course, he can't close at all if he's "tumbled to the track" ho ho ho, back to Tom and Carol in the studio ...

I have looked at Rupp's splits in other races, and that's how I came to that conclusion. Again, I'm not going to spell out every one of my opinions for you, so they can pass your rigid BS test. As for the discredit-the thing I was talking about him as a time trialer. I've watched him dozens of times in time trial efforts, and I've never seen him shifting to run 55 in the last lap or even close. Of course, I'd need to cite every single time to please you I'm sure. I'm not writing this as a robotic computer staring at splits and mindlessly stating fact. Instead, I'd rather combine a close following of all the races with my analysis of what transpired.

I'm happy you commented, though, and I will take some of your criticisms into account. Still, if I took your approach of saying the exact statistics of everything instead of just using that to inform my beliefs I would find myself bogged down in numbers and bored out of my mind. I clearly haven't established a high level of trust with you, and you need more data support and confirmation that I'm making stuff up. PM me or start another topic if you want to continue this discussion, I'm sure no one else really wants to hear us bicker.

EDIT: I'm sorry this discussion sidetracked the discussion of what Solinsky can run. Only 4+ hours away!

[xcrunna]

and so it begins....around 2:01 for Solinsky first 800
2K: 5:06.9 for the leaders, 5:09 solinsky around 10'th, 5:10 Rupp 12'th?
3400: 8:47 with 62 last lap, Solinsky a second or two back, Rupp 4 or 5 in a different group
4K: 10:24 Solinsky i nthe mix, rupp 10:28ish, 2:39 last 1K, slowing
Finish: 12:55.0 win for Bekele, my feed got choppy, but I think Solinsky 3'rd behind Merga in 12:57?, rough day for the Kenyans

[okko]

third place almost beating merga :eek:

http://www.diamondleague-zurich.com/en/Results/Overview/5000m-Men/

[eh000]

I was close.

Didn't expect 3rd, though. Pretty impressive.

[king99]

Just outstanding, would like to see Chris take a one shot only last ditch at AR in 3K, not sure there are any left for him.

What a friggin season. Amazing.

Rupp hung on for a PR at a really good 13:07, have to give him real credit here, not easy to run from where he was, could have mailed it in any time, he did not.

[eh000]

When's the last time the first American-born finisher in a huge European 5000 came in before the first Kenyan?

[xcrunna]

Just outstanding, would like to see Chris take a one shot only last ditch at AR in 3K, not sure there are any left for him.

What a friggin season. Amazing.
Ditto. Outstanding competitive effort here. You can throw out the time with the way the 4'th KM went. He nearly beat the best guy this year and beat the rest of an amazing field. I think he's got to give the 5K a go at the WC's if Bekele and Tadesse are in the 10,000m.

[king99]

Really an AR quality effort would have probably had it if they had not gone 63.x and 64.x late

But it did allow him to gather and wind it up under 1:57 I think for last 800M

[SlowHeatHero]

When's the last time the first American-born finisher in a huge European 5000 came in before the first Kenyan?

Munich, 1972.

Just a guess.

[okko]

Ditto. Outstanding competitive effort here. You can throw out the time with the way the 4'th KM went. He nearly beat the best guy this year and beat the rest of an amazing field. I think he's got to give the 5K a go at the WC's if Bekele and Tadesse are in the 10,000m.

was there ever any question whether he would? :confused:

[xcrunna]

was there ever any question whether he would? :confused:
Well, there's been some question about him putting the focus on the 10 instead. Usually, the double is doable, but I'm saying maybe he should lean to focusing completely on just the 5,000.

[okko]

Well, there's been some question about him putting the focus on the 10 instead. Usually, the double is doable, but I'm saying maybe he should lean to focusing completely on just the 5,000.

i think that's been his plan all along. it was just armchair critics saying he should run the 10k more after he ran the AR. i'm pretty sure schumacher and solinsky never seriously considered putting the focus on the 10k until after 2012 at the earliest.

[KevinM]

Munich, 1972.

Just a guess.


Nah, plenty more times than that. Doug Padilla ranked #2 in the world in 1985 behind Aouita, and in Oslo in 1994 BK ran 13:02 behind just Khalid Skah.

See also my post on page 2 regarding winners of Euro 5Ks (obviously Maree is not American-born, but AFAIK everyone else was):

Maree in Brussels in 1989

Plascencia in Lausanne - 1987

Mark Nenow in Paris in 1986

Doug Padilla in Helsinki, Rome, and Zurich - 1985 (he ranked 2nd in the world that year behind Aouita)

Padilla in Oslo and Helsinki - 1983

Bill McChesney in Oslo - 1981

Liquori in Stockholm - 1978

Liquori in Zurich - 1977

Duncan MacDonald in Stockholm - 1976

Dick Buerkle in Oslo - 1974

[xcrunna]

i think that's been his plan all along. it was just armchair critics saying he should run the 10k more after he ran the AR. i'm pretty sure schumacher and solinsky never seriously considered putting the focus on the 10k until after 2012 at the earliest.
Maybe, but check out these comments from an IAAF feature on him and FArah:

Unfinished business
For Solinsky, tomorrow’s race could be a significant pointer.
“Talking to my coach I think the way things unfold. Tomorrow could be a very good indication of which direction I go in. If I can get myself down to the low 12:50 range I think my desire to stay in the 5k will be a little bit more warranted. But I think as of now 26:59 has a little bit more weight than 12:55.”
“I guess over the next two years we will go with whatever we feel has the best chance of a medal.”
“I think because of my history in the five ii have more of a passion for the 5000 than the 10,000. But I can’t argue with the success I had with the 10 in my one race. But the passion’s definitely in the 5000 and I feel like I have unfinished business at that distance.”
“I feel like I’m still learning how to run a 5000. I’ve performed pretty well but I feel the emphasis is still on learning how to compete and win a Diamond League race and then carrying that into a championship final.”

Source: http://www.diamondleague.com/News/NewsArticles/Farah-and-Solinsky-believing-it-is-possible--Zurich-Samsung-Diamond-League/?Template=News

[okko]

Maybe, but check out these comments from an IAAF feature on him and FArah:

Unfinished business
For Solinsky, tomorrow’s race could be a significant pointer.
“Talking to my coach I think the way things unfold. Tomorrow could be a very good indication of which direction I go in. If I can get myself down to the low 12:50 range I think my desire to stay in the 5k will be a little bit more warranted. But I think as of now 26:59 has a little bit more weight than 12:55.”
“I guess over the next two years we will go with whatever we feel has the best chance of a medal.”
“I think because of my history in the five ii have more of a passion for the 5000 than the 10,000. But I can’t argue with the success I had with the 10 in my one race. But the passion’s definitely in the 5000 and I feel like I have unfinished business at that distance.”
“I feel like I’m still learning how to run a 5000. I’ve performed pretty well but I feel the emphasis is still on learning how to compete and win a Diamond League race and then carrying that into a championship final.”

Source: http://www.diamondleague.com/News/NewsArticles/Farah-and-Solinsky-believing-it-is-possible--Zurich-Samsung-Diamond-League/?Template=News

thanks for sharing; i hadn't seen this. it sounds like his thinking has changed a bit over the last month or so. it's good to see he's keeping his options open.

[KevinM]

Outside of global championships, world-class 10,000s are exceedingly rare. They were run at exactly zero DL meets this year (assuming Brussels doesn't run their once-brilliant 10K next week). This idea of "focusing on the 10K" really only has any bearing on what he will attempt at a WC or OG. The decision is made for him during the season purely because of lack of opportunity at the longer event.

In fact, if Brussels doesn't have a 10K, odds are good that Solinsky will end the year with the world leading time, something an American hasn't done since 1986 (Nenow's AR) (it also happened in 1985 - Bickford).

[king99]

I have to say this.

Chris Solinsky was one of my son's favorite HS runners even though they were/are not that far apart in age.

The reason, I think, was my son is 6'2 1/2 and weihged about 165 at the time , big by most HS runner's standards.


I saw Solinsky 3 times live in HS,and he was a tough nut. I never ever thought he would do all this, he is arguably the greatest American Born distance runner from a stat perspective in U.S. History.

Anyone who said they saw this coming other than maybe his Dad, is totally full of ****.

What a year, and today capped off by really finishing well, in a loaded field and 6 under 13:00, what can you say.

I think he should go 5K next year for Worlds and then 10K at Olymics, maybe depending on what shakes out in 2011.


It is amazing to see a guy you saw live in HS run like this.

A True horror show. and a man among men, as far as this sport goes. Someone who is just getting it done, as they say.

[HUGEkick92]

I have to say this.

Chris Solinsky was one of my son's favorite HS runners even though they were/are not that far apart in age.

The reason, I think, was my son is 6'2 1/2 and weihged about 165 at the time , big by most HS runner's standards.


I saw Solinsky 3 times live in HS,and he was a tough nut. I never ever thought he would do all this, he is arguably the greatest American Born distance runner from a stat perspective in U.S. History.

Anyone who said they saw this coming other than maybe his Dad, is totally full of ****.

What a year, and today capped off by really finishing well, in a loaded field and 6 under 13:00, what can you say.

I think he should go 5K next year for Worlds and then 10K at Olymics, maybe depending on what shakes out in 2011.


It is amazing to see a guy you saw live in HS run like this.

A True horror show. and a man among men, as far as this sport goes. Someone who is just getting it done, as they say.
yeah exactly. but he might be the best american born right now on paper... but don't forget about Rupp and Ritz, both have huge range on paper. I agree Solinsky is just remarkable for his build.

[cheesedoodles]

I have to say this.

Chris Solinsky was one of my son's favorite HS runners even though they were/are not that far apart in age.

The reason, I think, was my son is 6'2 1/2 and weihged about 165 at the time , big by most HS runner's standards.


I saw Solinsky 3 times live in HS,and he was a tough nut. I never ever thought he would do all this, he is arguably the greatest American Born distance runner from a stat perspective in U.S. History.

Anyone who said they saw this coming other than maybe his Dad, is totally full of ****.

What a year, and today capped off by really finishing well, in a loaded field and 6 under 13:00, what can you say.

I think he should go 5K next year for Worlds and then 10K at Olymics, maybe depending on what shakes out in 2011.


It is amazing to see a guy you saw live in HS run like this.

A True horror show. and a man among men, as far as this sport goes. Someone who is just getting it done, as they say.

i'm 6'4 and 175 lbs... i've always loved solinsky because of that but NO FREAKIN WAY i would have ever seen this season coming... absolutely incredible season for him!

[Zat0pek]

I have to say this.

Chris Solinsky was one of my son's favorite HS runners even though they were/are not that far apart in age.

The reason, I think, was my son is 6'2 1/2 and weihged about 165 at the time , big by most HS runner's standards.


I saw Solinsky 3 times live in HS,and he was a tough nut. I never ever thought he would do all this, he is arguably the greatest American Born distance runner from a stat perspective in U.S. History.

Anyone who said they saw this coming other than maybe his Dad, is totally full of ****.

What a year, and today capped off by really finishing well, in a loaded field and 6 under 13:00, what can you say.

I think he should go 5K next year for Worlds and then 10K at Olymics, maybe depending on what shakes out in 2011.


It is amazing to see a guy you saw live in HS run like this.

A True horror show. and a man among men, as far as this sport goes. Someone who is just getting it done, as they say.

Couldn't have said it better myself, king, including the 5K at WCs and 10K in London.

[Zat0pek]

Outside of global championships, world-class 10,000s are exceedingly rare. They were run at exactly zero DL meets this year (assuming Brussels doesn't run their once-brilliant 10K next week). This idea of "focusing on the 10K" really only has any bearing on what he will attempt at a WC or OG. The decision is made for him during the season purely because of lack of opportunity at the longer event.

In fact, if Brussels doesn't have a 10K, odds are good that Solinsky will end the year with the world leading time, something an American hasn't done since 1986 (Nenow's AR) (it also happened in 1985 - Bickford).

Correct. Add to that the very real possibility Solinsky could rank #1 for the first time since Bickford off the strength of winning the fastest, deepest race of the year and having the top mark.

If Brussels runs a ten, though, all bets could be off.

[Doc Awesome]

bump

[kingcoe]

Here are some questions: Will Solinsky continue to improve this year? Will he try to get in a fast race and take Lagat's 5K record? Do folks think he has a chance for a medal?

[A Blind Guy]

As a poster who has a sister and two good friends right now fighting cancer as well as an uncle, best friend and two grandparents who died of cancer I suggest you think about your sense of humor.

Or maybe you could understand that just because YOU get offended doesn't mean it isn't funny.

I'm very sorry that those people have cancer though.

[kingcoe]

Or maybe you could understand that just because YOU get offended doesn't mean it isn't funny.

I'm very sorry that those people have cancer though.

Wow. This was so old I didn't even remember posting it. Thank you for your thoughts.

I wasn't offended. Do you really think someone getting cancer is funny?

[Zat0pek]

Here are some questions: Will Solinsky continue to improve this year?

Given that he ran 13:10 in early March, that's a distinct possibility if he stays healthy. But last year was also a career year for him to date.

It's easy to get caught up after a breakthrough and think there's a lot more there, but most athlete's overlook how much has to go right to have a career year or set a record. That's why you almost always hear someone say after a record, "I know I can go faster." That's because when everything clicks, you feel damned near invincible. They really believe that when they say it because that's how it feels. But everything has to go right for that to happen, and it's rare in life when everything goes right.

I put the chances of a PR at 49.6%

Will he try to get in a fast race

Bet on it. I put the chances of this one at 91%.

and take Lagat's 5K record?

It's certainly possible, but a lot has to be perfect for it to happen. He had a career year last year and couldn't get it despite getting close several times.

I put the chances of this one at 31.5%.

Do folks think he has a chance for a medal?

This is even less likely than the record, but it still wouldn't be surprising if it happened. But we haven't seen what Solinsky can do in international championship racing yet since his breakthrough last year. The way he closed that 10,000 was a good sign but we don't know how that will translate at 5,000 especially after running rounds. You have think, though, that if Teg could come within .03 or whatever it was of getting a WC bronze that Solinsky's chances are at least that good and probably better.

I put the chances of this one at 16%, high enough that it wouldn't be a shock if it happened but low enough that it shouldn't be an expectation.

[okko]

Given that he ran 13:10 in early March, that's a distinct possibility if he stays healthy. But last year was also a career year for him to date.

It's easy to get caught up after a breakthrough and think there's a lot more there, but most athlete's overlook how much has to go right to have a career year or set a record. That's why you almost always hear someone say after a record, "I know I can go faster." That's because when everything clicks, you feel damned near invincible. They really believe that when they say it because that's how it feels. But everything has to go right for that to happen, and it's rare in life when everything goes right.

I put the chances of a PR at 49.6%



Bet on it. I put the chances of this one at 91%.



It's certainly possible, but a lot has to be perfect for it to happen. He had a career year last year and couldn't get it despite getting close several times.

I put the chances of this one at 31.5%.



This is even less likely than the record, but it still wouldn't be surprising if it happened. But we haven't seen what Solinsky can do in international championship racing yet since his breakthrough last year. The way he closed that 10,000 was a good sign but we don't know how that will translate at 5,000 especially after running rounds. You have think, though, that if Teg could come within .03 or whatever it was of getting a WC bronze that Solinsky's chances are at least that good and probably better.

I put the chances of this one at 16%, high enough that it wouldn't be a shock if it happened but low enough that it shouldn't be an expectation.

i love the percentages :D

[Doc Awesome]

Wow. This was so old I didn't even remember posting it. Thank you for your thoughts.

I wasn't offended. Do you really think someone getting cancer is funny?
cancer-not funny
comedians- funny

comedians with cancer- debatable, could go either ways

[Fillet-o-fish]

Wow. This was so old I didn't even remember posting it. Thank you for your thoughts.

I wasn't offended. Do you really think someone getting cancer is funny?

No one has the right to not be offended, its something this country tends to forget.

[kingcoe]

cancer-not funny
comedians- funny

comedians with cancer- debatable, could go either ways

LOL. Fascinating idea last. Could be a very powerful spokesperson.

[Doc Awesome]

LOL. Fascinating idea last. Could be a very powerful spokesperson.
agreed