State Cross Predictions

[Gotama]

Okay folks,its time to get more specific:

AAA:

1. Mo West - easily #1 last year. Only Tn loss was to MBA in the
Tn. Classic. Should repeat
2. Oak Ridge - good returning depth but not sure they can catch 'em
3t. Brentwood High and Station Camp - both have excellent returning top runners, but didnt challenge last year because of lack of depth. Can either team find that help?

Can't believe Farragut has enough to catch these teams, regardless of ORXCC lauds. I'm gonna assume its the locals talking each other up.

A/AA : looks weaker this year

1. MLKing - they are on a roll in Cross and Track. Lost 3 of their top 4 but have a pride thing going - they are the best of the weak class
2. USJ - more returning top runners and should challenge
3. Lipscomb - coaching change and hard to tell whats gonna happen, but return 5 of their top 7

Chucky-Doak is the wild card, returning all of their top 5 from 4th place last year. I think they are too far back

Div II: Only division that looks stronger this year

1. McCallie - lots of returning talent, including a superstar freshman. Coach Wood ought to put them over the top
2. MBA - return most of the team from last year, but the top runners have yet to prove they can compete with the best
3. Brentwood Academy - had 6 of 7 returning, but #1 runner moved to NC. Gotta believe that Mssrs. Smith and Harper will make them competitive, not to mention that Middle Tennessee is generally better.

And on the whatever happened to list - Guy Avery seems to have vanished from the high school scene after taking Ensworth to near the top over the last couple of years. Anyone heard of him?

I'll think some more about girls. They always seem to be harder to predice because young new runners can have a large impact.

[rednationxc]

Some solid predictions there.

AAA

I also like Mo West as the top team. They are apparently getting a stud frosh who could have some major impact this year. One team that you may have left out would be Oakland. They had a strong team last year, and with their top two returning they could be dangerous.

As for individuals, I'm calling a tight battle between Philips of Blackman and Baker, unless Iberg reappears.

A/AA
1. MLK- Always strong
2. Dave Lipscomb- They've been training hard all summer
3- ????

Individuals- Matt Joyner from Madison Academy is the top returner, but I would watch out for Sam Klockenkemper. He was strong during track, and could be dangerous.

DII-

Talk about a toss-up. It's going to be really tight this year. Like Gotama said, I also like McCallie for the win. However, I am not going to with MBA second. They just don't have the wheels this year. For second I have Brentwood Academy. And I will give MBA third.

As for Guy Avery- Word is he moved to Oregon, or was it New Mexico....

[boltoncct&f]

We get things going this weekend over here. Then again, as has been well documented, I doubt we will be seeing anything great from any of the teams. Those who have practiced anyway (against the wishes of TSSAA and the local school systems) have had to drastically modify their runs.

That being said:

There is a team here locally that have a few runners that have been absolutely booking it. I don't know what team they are from. I've been out of the loop for so long that I don't recognize runners from any of the teams.

[ORXCCoach]

MBA, one of the top teams in the nation, playing the Lou Holtz role here?


Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut
Farragut

[Evilution]

Houston sweeps girls and guys in every division. You heard it hear first.

[CBHSXC]

Are all of McCallies boys going to be eligible this season to make them a contender??

[Gotama]

McCallie is a conundrum. 9th graders? eligibility? I guess CavFan hasn't mananged to figure out the internet enough to make the leap to TrackTalk.

[slornow]

Some of the top McCallie runners are recipients of "Honors Scholarships" for merit/academics and by TSSAA rules cannot compete in varsity athletics. I have not heard of any change to the rule. My understanding is that TSSAA and/or DII competition committe were not interested in modifying the rule in anyway despite there being reasonable alternatives to the "blanket" prohibition against these scholarship athletes competing at the varsity level.

There was a Sports Illustrated article several months ago discussing the situation and the McCallie runners.

It looks like McCallie returns several solid runners from last year and should be in the mix at the State meet. The scholarship runners would certainly add depth if they were allowed to compete.

[ORXCCoach]

Mba

[ORXCCoach]

And Farragut!

[CBHSXC]

Which runner from Brentwood Academy moved to NC???

[rednationxc]

Sam Roberson

[Gotama]

Okay, now the girls:

AAA - easy

1. Oak Ridge - better than anyone else last year, gonna be better this year
2. Ravenwood - large school, large team, large depth. And they're midstate with a competent coach for a change
3. Knox Catholic - Ferrowich is a beastess, but she doesnt have enough help

Div II - improved overall since last year, both teams and all top 10 individuals return. When's the last time that happened?
1. Baylor - see Oak Ridge in AAA - better last year, better this year
except their coach doesnt claim to be weaker
2. Brentwood Academy - Ms Cheesman mere and Ms Cheesman fille will bring BA back towards the top. A year away from challenging
3. Ensworth - lost only Graham, but still wondering where Guy (half-beard) Avery has gone

A/AA - better than the boys, but still the weakest group
1. Hume Fogg - I know, an odd choice. They are smart. They are midState. I like 'em
2. Trinity - good top group, lacks depth
3. USJ - barely won last year in a meet where the top 3 teams were 12 pts apart. Wont happen again

[ORXCCoach]

My only issue with your prognostications, Gotama, is with Catholic: you left off Joanna Thompson, who looks to me like a pretty solid candidate for FLN. That means that Catholic has a couple of beastesses.

Joanna and Adrian did a 12 miler last weekend that made my jaw drop.

Girls xc in Tennessee looks to be really, really good, with several FLN candidates and at least a couple who could make it to NXN or come close at FLS.

[Gotama]

Beastess is an interesting concept. I agree, certainly, Ms. Thompson qualifies as one, whatever that is. Howsomever, seems like in the immediate post Bumbi era Brentwood Academy managed to 1-2 the state with Adams and Schmidt, and even had Harper Jr. in the top 10 and still did not win the meet. Beatesses twain may not conquer the main.

[runna4life]

I heard the Greenwall twins from North Oconee in Georgia moved to Baylor. Both have run fast before; they could help them.

[CBHSXC]

Thats what makes it fun to compete against the boarding schools!

[StrokerAce]

ORXCCoach is right about MBA. They could be the top team in the southeast as well as make news on the national scene. Look at what they return - not just CC results from '09 but track results as well. Barring interruptions in training they will run away with DII. Matter of fact they have a great chance at taking the top three spots (Roberson is gone and McClellan was unable to run much at all this summer) and may be able to put two or three more in the top 10. Nonsense to think right now that they won't polish off the field in DII.

[Gotama]

I didnt know MBA was a boarding school.

And it's almost time to start figuring out who's coming to the Tennessee Classic. How about that team from Kansas City that tromped everyone last year?

[CBHSXC]

Was referring to the university of baylor. We are headed up to the Trinity meet. I believe MBA is going up there also along with Oak Ridge and Siegal.

[ORXCCoach]

You'll like the Trinity meet, I think. Chad Waggoner and his crew are among the friendliest meet directors I've ever met--kind of like the AllTrax boys, but these are just high school teachers.

Prepare to meet the army of Carmel kids running fast. Their depth is ridiculous. Looks like DuPont Manual and Assumption are also good on the girls side, and Carmel, Trinity, and St. X are all good on the boys side. Last year Tupelo came up also, and they are good every year, too.

[CBHSXC]

Looking forward to it. Im bringing up the st agnes girls also.

[boltoncct&f]

Let's add Abigail Topham (Cordova) to the list of AAA contenders. The past few freshmen who have come in and dominated the local jamboree, have all gone on to do some pretty big things (Denise Bargachi and Rita Jorgensen come to mind). This girl also comes from quite the distance pedigree.

[ORXCCoach]

Results?

[boltoncct&f]

Results?

The jamboree has apparently turned into shoot the gun, and it's up to the coaches to get their own times from there. No scores or anything. By the way, this race was a week and a half ago.

What I saw, for girls, was Topham drop the field. I also saw that Houston and Colierville seemed to have pretty strong teams.

Cordova's team looked strong on the guys side. I'm not even sure if Houston ran any of their varsity guys. Half the teams did not even where uniforms, so it was hard to tell.

[Gotama]

Same sort of thing this week at the S'chase - a time your own. Barbara Lee Ball (Soph, Lipscomb) stomped the field, followed by a home-schooler from Brentwood, and Emily Peters (frosh, St. Cecilia). I predict these girls will be very competitive, not just in A/AA

[ORXCCoach]

I read the preview in The Commercial Appeal. Glad to see Eliot Iberg back after a very long absence. You always have to assume that Houston will be good.

You pretty much have to assume Hardin Valley Academy is going to be good from now on, too.

[bro circle guy]

Knox west :D

[Gotama]

Just saw the results of Chickasaw Trails. Houston got stomped, with a team average over 18:00, and I saw no Iberg. Whazzupwidat?