how fast will lukas run at the armory?

[usnspecialist]

simple poll after his 403.88 mile.

[Crystazul]

Calling 8:42.

[eh000]

Missing Lindgren's record, but close.

So yeah, something like 8:42.

[TeamOrange]

43-46

[ghamalian]

8:46

[emdeb]

Someone really thinks he won't break 9:00?

[flyingscotsman10]

8:44.31

[SprintsFTW19]

8:45.52

[usnspecialist]

Someone really thinks he won't break 9:00?

i dont agree with it, but im going to say the thinking is that he goes out hard (like 415) and just blows up completely. I could see that happening, but still think he breaks 9.

[kingcoe]

Voted 8:40-8:44, if he runs a smart race after his 4:03 he should be able to pull this off especially considering the competition.

Hang in the back and maybe pick some folks off at the end. If he gets caught up and runs the first mile too quick . . . he'll still break 9:00 but it will get ugly.

He seems like a bright kid, I'm betting on smart race.

[Joe Lanzalotto]

Voted 8:40-8:44, if he runs a smart race after his 4:03 he should be able to pull this off especially considering the competition.

Hang in the back and maybe pick some folks off at the end. If he gets caught up and runs the first mile too quick . . . he'll still break 9:00 but it will get ugly.

He seems like a bright kid, I'm betting on smart race.

Seems right. Last time he ran ~4:04 and then tried to take it out hard he ended up running 8:58.66.

[tri.track]

I'm hoping he runs in the 8:40-8:44 range and I think he's 100% able to do it. I think if he comes through the mile in 4:18 range he will. Any faster than 4:15 he could blow up though. Even if he came through the 3k in 8 flat he might go over 40 for the last 200+.

I just think that there is a HUGE difference in coming through the mile in 4:14 and for 4:19 in a 2 mile race. Sub 8:40 makes me think sub 14:00 5k guy. I think he's been focusing a little too much on going sub 4 in the mile to try and go 13:XX in the 5k quite yet (on a track obviously).

[king99]

The issue with this, is , are there any 8:45-50 type in this race?

the race is set up for about 3:04-05 going out thru 1200 you would figure, if he gets caught up just off teh back of that, there will be troubles in the last mile

4:20 will feel easy to him, for a while, and be deceiving, will it be too tough to hang 12-15 seconds back of the leaders as on a 200M indoor track that looks like far away.

he is a tough guy though, I just think these set up for way faster time evets and putting a HS'er in can be a mixed bag

[kingcoe]

The issue with this, is , are there any 8:45-50 type in this race?

the race is set up for about 3:04-05 going out thru 1200 you would figure, if he gets caught up just off teh back of that, there will be troubles in the last mile

4:20 will feel easy to him, for a while, and be deceiving, will it be too tough to hang 12-15 seconds back of the leaders as on a 200M indoor track that looks like far away.

he is a tough guy though, I just think these set up for way faster time evets and putting a HS'er in can be a mixed bag

Funny, after my post last night I had the same thought. Who will/ would be trying to run a pace that would make sense for him in this race. I don't much of the rest of the field would be running if they were targeting 8:40 . . .

[Joe Lanzalotto]

No one in that mile was trying to run 4:04 going in.

[king99]

What does that mean?

[Crystazul]

No one in that mile was trying to run 4:04 going in.
Obviously, but I think his point is that while Lukas could hang onto the end of the mile pack and end up beating a few people, hanging on for a 2 mile is going to be different. Any elites who are going to die in the race will hang on for at least a mile or so. Lukas "hanging on the back of the pack" then becomes 4:15 pace, which is obviously way to fast...

So he need to run his own race.

[TeamOrange]

They may give him his own rabbit, like they do in PRE invite

[Joe Lanzalotto]

What does that mean?

It means that looking at the mile field he should have been all alone at the back and he wasn't. And I don't believe for a minute that he'll be alone at the back for the whole race.

[southkakrun]

8:41.65

[TeamOrange]

Wait, is this a high school race or a pro race?

[king99]

Who else is in thie race?

[Crystazul]

Who else is in thie race?
Lagat will be going for the AR in this race, so I imagine there will be plenty of big names and obviously the pace will be fast...

I could not find an entry list when I quickly looked but there might be one out there.

[KevinM]

Lagat will be going for the AR in this race, so I imagine there will be plenty of big names and obviously the pace will be fast...

Or it could be like many other record attempts, where you have basically rabbits and the record hopeful. No man's land is not an ideal place to set a PR - hopefully there are some 8:40-50 type folks in the race (and not guys who fade to 8:40s).

[king99]

and THAT was my entire point, guys that are semi Elite having a bad day will go out in 4:10-4:14, still off Lagat's record attempted pace

If Lukas is there at that, he would seemingly have a rough road in, I would think

What guys WIND up running is not the same as where they were until they really started to fade

[BlackIrish]

If Lukas goes out conservatively (ie in the 4:20 range) I could see him throwing down a solid 8:44 or so). That is my conservative guess.

I could see him under 8:40 if he really goes for it all though.

[king99]

Oh, do not get me wrong, I think Lukas is good enough to :

A: Break the Indoor record of 8:40 if he manages his race right

B. Break Outdoor record in a few months , if he had any reasonable help at all

The reality is though, that it is very challenging to do this, guys have been right at or slightly over the pace when they ran monsters and close down really well.

Prefontaine went 24/17 I believe ,on very cool April night

Not sure about Virgin or Nelson

Centrowitz and Forys close down hard in their epic battle

Fernandez I think was right near the even split mark?, I would need some help on that

[Joe Lanzalotto]

I would think that the record would be more easily threatened at NBIN where there was a race among equals - say, Verzbicas, Cheserek, Rosas, etc. For me, I'd rather see such a hallowed record be broken as the feature at the front of the race that everyone in the place is focused on rather than at teh back of an invitational race at a college meet where no one is paying attention to the high school kid in teh race.

However, I wouldn't rule out Lukas' chances of doing anything.

[2togo]

There have been a lot of good points made regarding Lukas' potential time. I think using Chris Derrick as a baseline for comparison is helpful for two reasons. 1) In my opinion, LV & CD are very close performance wise in XC/5K. 2) Lukas clearly has quite a bit more mile speed compared to where Chris was his senior year. Thus, I think these two bits of information are helpful in at least predicting the high end of Lukas' range.

To deduce the deuce I look at Derrick's split of around 8:46 over the final 3200M in the Arcadia 5K and factor Lukas' edge on mile speed and their relative equivalence at 5K to reasonably assume Lukas is sub 8:46y capable (albeit Derrick's 8:46 was over a slightly shorter distance and outdoors, but b/c it was a split and Lukas' edge on speed it's a wash for me). Therefore, I think LV is definitely under 8:46 (assuming he doesn't run stupid). It wouldn't surprise me to see him under 8:40, but that is such a ridiculous mark and there is a lot of history to suggest he will most likely be somewhere north of 8:40.

The tricky part is going to be how fast Lukas gets out. At NBN last year I don't think Lukas' first mile hurt him as much as his first lap. I cannot remember his first 400m split exactly, but I think it was around 61. At the time I remember thinking he may pay for that quick of a first lap. If he runs even or negative then I think he posts a WOW type number.

[CoryC]

Fernandez I think was right near the even split mark?, I would need some help on that

Fernandez was an even splitting machine in high school. The record splits were 64.2, 65.8, 64.9, 64.5, 63.9, 64.7, 63.3, 62.7. I might be off in the tenths, but I think the point stands.

[okko]

Fernandez was an even splitting machine in high school. The record splits were 64.2, 65.8, 64.9, 64.5, 63.9, 64.7, 63.3, 62.7. I might be off in the tenths, but I think the point stands.

that's actually a pretty significant negative split from the first mile to the second mile. i'm not sure your point is all that valid. a range of over 3 seconds between quarter splits isn't really anything special.

also, do you just happen to have all his splits from that race memorized? cuz that's kinda weird.

[CoryC]

that's actually a pretty significant negative split from the first mile to the second mile. i'm not sure your point is all that valid. a range of over 3 seconds between quarter splits isn't really anything special.

also, do you just happen to have all his splits from that race memorized? cuz that's kinda weird.

While my brain is quite fantastic, I do not have them memorized. I looked up the 'Stat.

[xcrunna]

I voted 8:40-8:44, but the point of lack of pacing is giving me some second thoughts. Lukas is pretty good at soloing, so I wouldn't be surprised but he'll have to be careful and stay within himself or it will be a long road home.

[Zat0pek]

Just some perspective here.

Lindgren ran his 8:40.0 in 1964. I couldn't find the indoor WR for 1964, but the outdoor was 8:29.6 by Michael Jazy (Bob Schul ran 8:26 that summer).

The current spread between the indoor (8:04.35) and outdoor (7:58.61) records is 5.74 seconds or about 1.2% So let's assume that the spread was about the same percentage back then; that would make the indoor WR in 1964 about 8:35 or so. That means that Lindgren was only five seconds, or about .97% off the indoor WR.

Applying that same percentage to Bekele's current indoor WR would yield a time of 8:09.12 today.

In other words, Lindgren's performance relative to the rest of the world in 1964 is the equivalent of a high school kid running 8:09 or thereabouts today. Similar numbers would exist, I'm sure, for his 4:01 indoor mile that same year.

Those were staggering performances at the time and the fact they remain unbroken today says just how good they were. As insanely talented as Lukas is, he was about two seconds slower for the mile at BIG in a pro race on one of the best indoor tracks in the world than Lindgren was in 1964 on boards. That doesn't diminish Lukas or any of the other guys between 1964 and today; it just goes to show how other-worldly Lindgren was in 1964.

[KevinM]

Zat - Lindgren's high school mile best was outdoors.

That's what I thought, but I saw it listed as an indoor mark. Didn't think that was right, but I shoulda checked it out. You're right, of course.

[BlackIrish]

When you involve statistics a bell curve must be in place. You can't just extrapolate that conclusion just because you use percentages away from current WRs. The WR was certainly a lot easier to achieve then than it is now. An 8:09 is a helluva lot more impressive than an 8:35 regardless of the time, because of the small percentage of the population that is able to achieve it.

[The Hammer]

In other words, Lindgren's performance relative to the rest of the world in 1964 is the equivalent of a high school kid running 8:09 or thereabouts today.
We all know Lindgren's performance was incredible but that comment is ridiculous. You're doing him no favors by attempting to aggrandize it with meaningless statistics and calculations taken out of context. 1964 was a far different era than now. It was before the running boom of the 1970s, the emergence of East Africa as a distance powerhouse, the repeal of the AAU sanctions that allow professionals today to focus on running fast instead of making enough money to support themselves, not to mention all the scientific and technological progress we've made in the past 40+ years. There was much less difference between the resources of a "professional" and a high schooler in Lindgren's time and there was far less competition as well. 8:40 is an incredible time, whether it's run this winter by Lukas, or in 1964 by Lindgren, but an 8:09 it is not, no matter who runs it.

[skurey]

I think Zat is saying Lukas will run faster than 8:09

:D

[king99]

Not only that Zat, but Lindgren's 4:01 , even if it was Indoors, would not be a record today, you refer to "records" unbroken

Webb ran 3:59 indoors albeit at the Armory

Thom Hunt's 4:02.7 I believe , which I saw late on live TV at Sunkist I believe when I was 17, on a 160 track might be worth close to 3:59

Hammer, 4:01 was still 4:01 for a HS mile , even though it does not apply here and 8:40 Indoors is still 8:40 a mark only Webb has come near..at 8:45 on flat track

Zat , I have to agree with other posters, the reality is, that there was no real Rift Valley threat or other back African influence really then , kind of like MLB without the color line being broken down

it was more than half a sport, but not much more I guess , as it turns out?

[Eva N]

Zat , I have to agree with other posters, the reality is, that there was no real Rift Valley threat or other back African influence really then , kind of like MLB without the color line being broken down

it was more than half a sport, but not much more I guess , as it turns out?

Maybe comparison to what the non-African world-bests are today would be a more apples-to-apples exercise?

[The Saint]

8:45ish

[Green Lantern]

Who else is in thie race?

' Lagat's "rabbits" will be Robby Andrews of the University of Virginia and Russell Brown. '

Can't find anything other than that

[Zat0pek]

Everything you guys say about the sport being vastly different now is absolutely true; king, I especially liked your comment about it being "half a sport" because we lacked full African participation back then. I'd say it was more like 70% of the sport, but the point stands. There was a huge number of potentially game-changing endurance athletes that weren't in the sport. But we weren't without African participation in the '60s, either. There were a number of highly significant Africans like double Oly gold marathon Abebe Bikila and Kip Keino.

But you guys are also making the classic mistake of judging historical events by current standards. The fact is, when Lindgren ran that indoor 8:40 on boards, nobody knew that the sport was missing out on this huge talent pool. There were, after all, prominent Africans like Bikila and Keino and Jipcho and others on the scene, so Lindgren's mark was judged against the world as it was then.

My point in going through that exercise was to illustrate why some of these guys are set apart and greats that will probably never be equaled because, frankly, they can't in today's world. When historical sports figures are given homage as "the greatest ever" despite the fact that today's athletes may be far superior in terms of raw performance (though that isn't true for Lindgren at the high school level; the fact this mark hasn't been broken by the likes of Virgin, Webb, Ritz, GF, Lukas, and others shows that), it's important to understand why.

Imagine, if you will, the media frenzy if Lukas matched Lindgren with a performance relative to the current WR and dropped an 8:09 or even came close with something like an 8:15. That's what it was like with Lindgren then. This is the same kid who, while still in high school, beat the Russians at 10,000 at a time when the Russians were considered almost the equivalent of today's Kenyans on the world scene. Ditto Ryun's 3:55. Yes, Webb broke it by a comfortable margin, but in that 3:55 Ryun also set the AR, came within a few seconds of the WR, and beat the reigning Oly gold medalist, all in the summer after high school graduation. That would have been like Webb running 3:46 and beating El G in that race. Can you imagine the Webb hype if that had happened?

Another great example is Zatopek's Olympic distance triple. Can you imagine someone winning the 5,000, 10,000 AND Marathon all in the same Olys today? Not gonna happen. But if you look at the times he ran, they are equaled by a dozen or two collegians every year. And, of course, there was even less African participation when he did it in '52. But, like Lindgren, no one knew at the time that the sport was missing all that talent, so his achievement was measured against the world as it was then.

The perspective I was trying to impart was how those achievements were viewed then by pointing out what an equivalent achievement would be by today's standards and why guys like Lindgren and Ryun will probably never have their achievements matched. They were relevant on the world stage as high schoolers. Lindgren and Ryun both made the Oly team as high schoolers in '64. Liquori not only made the team but made the Oly FINAL at 1500 as a 19 year old college frosh in '68. Ryun was setting WRs as a college soph. Imagine Wheating dropping a 3:42 mile as an Oregon soph; that's exactly what Ryun did. Can you imagine guys like Ritz, Rupp, Wheating, GF or Webb equaling those feats at the same age? You think these guys are hyped now, what do you think it would be like if that happened?

Add to that, Lindgren's record still stands; it's just three years shy of it's 50th anniversary! That's just stupid great, especially considering it was set on a small board track. Even if you throw out where that mark stood against the rest of the world then, the fact that, simply as a raw performance, it is a record approaching 50 years old almost defies description of how great that is.

Lukas may run faster than Lindgren but even if he does, he can never come near the achievement for the reasons many of you correctly point out. But that doesn't diminish the achievements of guys like Lindgren and Ryun. Even just based on raw times like 8:40.0i and 3:55.3, these guys would still be head and shoulders above anyone on the scene today, nearly 47 years later. It is highly doubtful that even guys as great in HS as GF, Webb, Ritz, Lukas and Rupp would still be head and shoulders above the the best high schoolers 47 years from now.

Lindgren and Ryun were simply gods of the sport, and it is likely they will always remain so because even if their raw performances are occasionally surpassed, their achievements relative to the rest of the world can probably never be approached. That is in part because, as many of you have noted, the rest of the world has changed. But it is also in part because their raw performances were so great and so far ahead of their time that they will likely remain at or near the top of any era.

I've often wondered if that wasn't a small part of the reason, along with many other obvious reasons, why track had such a phenomenal fan and media following in the 60s. There were true legends doing things then that could never be equaled and that's about as compelling as you can get in any sport.

[Zat0pek]

Let's throw one more truly legendary HS performance in the mix that many of you probably never heard of. And this one is about on par with Ryun's 3:55.3 AR win over Peter Snell.

Who knows, without Googling, who Debbie Heald is?

She's the 16 year old high school girl who in 1972, set the indoor American Record for the mile, winning an open race against some of the the best women in the world, including U.S. legend (and World Cross Champ) Doris Brown and the Russian who just set the indoor 1500 WR only the week before. And she did it on a tiny board track in Richmond, VA.

It is STILL the HS AR despite the massive influx of girls in the sport since then.

Here's the race. It's one of the most incredible kicks you'll ever see: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrvJ2bsFduY&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrvJ2bsFduY&feature=related)

[SprintsFTW19]

Let's throw one more truly legendary HS performance in the mix that many of you probably never heard of. And this one is about on par with Ryun's 3:55.3 AR win over Peter Snell.

Who knows, without Googling, who Debbie Heald is?

She's the 16 year old high school girl who in 1972, set the indoor American Record for the mile, winning an open race against some of the the best women in the world, including U.S. legend (and World Cross Champ) Doris Brown and the Russian who just set the indoor 1500 WR only the week before. And she did it on a tiny board track in Richmond, VA.

It is STILL the HS AR despite the massive influx of girls in the sport since then.

Here's the race. It's one of the most incredible kicks you'll ever see: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrvJ2bsFduY&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrvJ2bsFduY&feature=related)

Every time I watch that race it gives me chills.

[herr]

Good race! But the problem of how to understand the accomplishments of Lindgren and Ryun et al relative to today has a lot to do with dramatic differences in the size of the pool combined with changes in physiological knowledge and training techniques.

Lindgren and Ryun-- and all of the people they were competing against -- were a relatively large part of a much much smaller world back then. Not only was the world's population orders of magnitude smaller than it is now. But over half the world was not participating in athletics of any kind. It was a much smaller gene pool.

Lindgren and Ryun (and Snell and Jazy etc) were genetically gifted people who trained hard. In that small world, they really stood out. Today the world is much bigger, the gene pool is bigger and, oddly, even though the accomplishments are way greater, the superstars tend to stand out even less than the old stars like Lindgren and Ryun did in their day.

Back in Lindgren and Ryuns's day, the world was effectively the size of a place like Germany or France today. Those places produce some excellent runners today, depending on the year. But on the whole, the accomplishments within those demographic pools are not really that much out of line from what Ryun and Lindgren were doing back then. They have a few randomly distributed Mehdi Baala's and Dieter Baumann's, but the average elite level in those places is pretty pedestrian--relative to the top of the world.

Plus-- very important-- technologies have changed, our understanding of training physiology has advanced enormously, the African's have melded genetic search techniques with very sophisticated training methods. When you add that to the size of the pool that we are drawing genetically gifted athletes from world wide today has tripled or even quadrupled from the size of the pool in Lindgren and Ryun's day, you get the enormous numbers of people who have run significantly faster times today than Lindgren and Ryun were doing in their day--at the top of their world.

There are just simply way more runners now able to do what they did than there were then. That combined with better technologies and search techniques has increased the level of performance enormously relative to those old days.

Lindgren and Ryun were phenoms. No question about it. But the people today doing the same thing are not phenoms in the same degree because there are simply many more of them, and the real genetically gifted few are being trained in expert ways. Its a different world now. There is really no comparison with the old days

[king99]

Zat, good post, Herrr well said

But:

Didn;t this almost happen in the 70's

Winning?

5,000, 10,000 AND Marathon

Didn;t Viren against bigger talent pool than Zatopek, try this and almost get it done albeit not in marathon?

[Zat0pek]

Zat, good post, Herrr well said

But:

Didn;t this almost happen in the 70's

Winning?

5,000, 10,000 AND Marathon

Didn;t Viren against bigger talent pool than Zatopek, try this and almost get it done albeit not in marathon?

Viren was, I believe, fifth in the marathon in '76 after winning the 5 and 10.

[zpppe]

Anyone know if there is a webcast anywhere for this?

[Zat0pek]

Good race! But the problem of how to understand the accomplishments of Lindgren and Ryun et al relative to today has a lot to do with dramatic differences in the size of the pool combined with changes in physiological knowledge and training techniques.

Lindgren and Ryun-- and all of the people they were competing against -- were a relatively large part of a much much smaller world back then. Not only was the world's population orders of magnitude smaller than it is now. But over half the world was not participating in athletics of any kind. It was a much smaller gene pool.

Lindgren and Ryun (and Snell and Jazy etc) were genetically gifted people who trained hard. In that small world, they really stood out. Today the world is much bigger, the gene pool is bigger and, oddly, even though the accomplishments are way greater, the superstars tend to stand out even less than the old stars like Lindgren and Ryun did in their day.

Back in Lindgren and Ryuns's day, the world was effectively the size of a place like Germany or France today. Those places produce some excellent runners today, depending on the year. But on the whole, the accomplishments within those demographic pools are not really that much out of line from what Ryun and Lindgren were doing back then. They have a few randomly distributed Mehdi Baala's and Dieter Baumann's, but the average elite level in those places is pretty pedestrian--relative to the top of the world.

Plus-- very important-- technologies have changed, our understanding of training physiology has advanced enormously, the African's have melded genetic search techniques with very sophisticated training methods. When you add that to the size of the pool that we are drawing genetically gifted athletes from world wide today has tripled or even quadrupled from the size of the pool in Lindgren and Ryun's day, you get the enormous numbers of people who have run significantly faster times today than Lindgren and Ryun were doing in their day--at the top of their world.

There are just simply way more runners now able to do what they did than there were then. That combined with better technologies and search techniques has increased the level of performance enormously relative to those old days.

Lindgren and Ryun were phenoms. No question about it. But the people today doing the same thing are not phenoms in the same degree because there are simply many more of them, and the real genetically gifted few are being trained in expert ways. Its a different world now. There is really no comparison with the old days

All true, but it still overlooks why the performances of Lindgren and Ryun (and I think Heald's should be added as well) rightfully earned them status that can probably never be equaled and that is how close they were to best in the world while in high school. Everyone wants to point out that the WR were "soft" by comparison, and it's easy to think that in hindsight. But I guarantee you nobody thought that then. Again, they must be judged in the context of their time.

We know now, with the benefit of good ol' 20/20 hindsight, that the WRs then still had a lot of give in them. But nobody knew that then. Folks then looked around and saw how much the sport had advanced in the last 15 or so years since the end of WWII and thought largely the same thing you are describing, that there's no comparison to the way things used to be in the not-too-distant past.

Both are true.

The fact is that Lindgren and Ryun's (and again, I'd add Heald's to that list) performances had the same impact on the sport then as would a performance by a high school kid that was comparably close to the WR today. It was almost beyond comprehension then, and it's equally almost beyond comprehension now.

With the benefit of hindsight, I see several things colliding that created the perfect conditions for the likes of Lindgren, Ryun and Heald to be as close to the WR as they were. These conditions existed from about 1964 to about 1972 or so. In no particular order, they are:
World class runners were, on average, much younger then. For example, Herb Elliott retired at the ripe old age of 22 with WRs and Oly gold. Without legal money in the sport, it was rare for guys to stay in the sport much beyond their mid to late 20s. That means that high schoolers were actually much closer in age to world class runners, making it more likely to be able to approach that level of performance. If there was a mandatory retirement age for athletes of, say, 19, it wouldn't be at all unusual for high schoolers to be at or near the world class level. The reduced career length made it more likely for a high schooler to be relevant on the world stage.
Training was revolutionized like it never had been before and really hasn't been since when Lydiard's guys burst on the scene at the Rome Olympics in 1960. Endurance training revolutionized what was possible, and was tectonic shift from the interval training days of the 50s. Probably no other training change has had as dramatic effect as introduction of aerobic endurance training. That made huge advances possible for those who adopted these methods. It should be no surprise that Lindgren and Ryun were among the first batch to start pouring on the miles in high school. When those training methods were adopted by high schoolers who were within a few years in age of many world-class runners, it was a big equalizer.
No money not only meant younger athletes, it also meant those that did stay in likely had jobs and were not the full time athletes of today. This again was an equalizer for high school and college kids of that era.
With respect to Heald's bomb, women were just beginning to run distance longer than 800 meters. In '72, Heald was just a few years removed from Katherine Switzer subterfuge at Boston. The longest distance for women in the Olympics was "raised" to 1500 in '72.We'll probably never again see such a perfect storm.

But that fact remains that Lindgren and Ryun's performances were viewed then just as times comparable close today's WRs would be viewed.

Finally, herr, your referred to how often those raw performances are duplicated, but that applies to the WRs, not Lindgren, Ryun and Heald's performances. Lindgren and Heald's performances still have yet to be exceeded by high schoolers, and Ryun's has been exactly once. That's the other piece that makes them so mindblowing; STILL nobody can duplicate them.

And I could argue with a straight face that Lindgren's 8:40.0 on a tiny board track is still superior even to GFs 8:34 outdoors on Mondo.

[DiscoGary]

No money not only meant younger athletes, it also meant those that did stay in likely had jobs and were not the full time athletes of today. This again was an equalizer for high school and college kids of that era. I would have to pick money as the dominant factor. Since the premier event in running was the Olympics, and athletes had to be amateurs to compete, that had to keep a lot of people out of the running. Ugh.

[Paul Schwartz]

Much as it pains me:D I have to agree with Gary -- If track athletes could have made a living in the 1950s, 1960s and even 1970s as they make (comparatively today) would these guys (and girls) have put up world marks that might still stand?

Lindgren, Ryan, Heald, Barbara Friedrich (198-8 javelin in I think 1967?) and other teen phenoms were considered ancient at 25 while a Lagat is still running great more than a decade later today.

When I was a kid my heroes were Ryun and Jim Beatty and Wilma Rudolph and Parry O'Brien. I got to go to Madison Square Garden 4 or 5 weeks in a a row to watch a quality indoor meet (and 2 or 3 others would be on Wide World of Sports from other places).
Track was behind just baseball and college football and ahead of hockey, pro basketball and even college basketball. Golf and tennis merited a couple of graphs and track had headline stories. I'm not sure what happened but Zatopek has it pegged -- when a high school kid like jim ryun took on the greatest runners in the world, 4 minutes was a side show -- the real question was -- could he win? lukas is amazing but it'll be beyond spectacular if he was even on the same final 100 meters of the race as the winner Saturday. And I'm not sure that it's good that a great high school runner who can't compete in the race with the others in the field can take down a great record in what for him is essentially a time trial. I hope if the record goes it goes at NB Indoors.

[king99]

Me too Paul, like JoeL I hope it goes down there as well.

Things have changed as the ladscape has guys go where they can run fast rather than run against great guys multiple times. I do get why that has to be today, I just wish the best guys laced it up more often against the best guys than 1-2 times.

[SEAURCHIN4]

Just on a side note, I wonder if Gerry Lindgren will be watching the live webcast of this 2-mile extravaganza to see if Lukas Verzbicas can break his 47 year old indoor record..lol...

[usnspecialist]

Just on a side note, I wonder if Gerry Lindgren will be watching the live webcast of this 2-mile extravaganza to see if Lukas Verzbicas can break his 47 year old indoor record..lol...

what is the link for the webcast?

[the stogs]

on milesplit

[Zat0pek]

[/list]I would have to pick money as the dominant factor. Since the premier event in running was the Olympics, and athletes had to be amateurs to compete, that had to keep a lot of people out of the running. Ugh.

I agree; I wasn't listing the events in any particular order. I also believe money is what brought about the African explosion.

[ORXCCoach]

I thought about this question on and off for much of the week after LV ran 4:03. I was there when GF ran 8:34--probably the greatest run I have ever witnessed in person.

I was there last year when LV crashed and burned after going out so hard in the heat at Greensboro. I thought at the time that the move was foolhardy, but now I think that he was able to enter some territory that will help him in future races, having suffered through a suicidal pace that he was not physically or mentally quite ready to run (in my view).

I looked at the VDot tables to see that 4:03 is the VDot equivalent of 8:40.

I thought about the maturity that athletes gain rapidly after a series of well-though-out successes, including winning both NXN and FLN. You just can't overstate the importance of that kind of success on the mentality of an elite athlete.

Given these factors, I'm saying he squeaks under the record and goes 8:38-ish. That's right at 8:00 for 3K, which seems right, to me. Of course, that time really depends on how mature he is in this race full of pros.

[king99]

I have not seen a start list for this , who is in this other than Lagat and Lukas?

Andrews is pacing thru 1200?

[ORXCCoach]

Guess I assumed that the field would be relatively full given that LV chose to go for that record today in NYC rather than next month.

[skurey]

When is this?

[Crystazul]

8:06 PM EST. According to milesplit.

[glacier freeze]

is there a parking lot at the armory? i know land is precious? any good beta on parking? or will it be a fight to find a spot?

[Quenton_Cassidy]

Hes letting the front group seperate a little... playing it smart.

[Crystazul]

This music is ridiculous...

[wokthatway]

for some reason the armory feed kills my internet connection. any post updates?

[Crystazul]

4:07.9 for Lagat at mile.

~4:14 for Lukas

[Quenton_Cassidy]

for some reason the armory feed kills my internet connection. any post updates?

Roughly:


1mile
Lagat - 4:07
Lukas 4:17

[wokthatway]

4:14 would be too fast on lukas.

[skurey]

8:43!

[ORXCCoach]

8:43--lots of 2nd mile by himself. Great shot of Lagat finishing with AR while LV had 400 to go.

[TeamOrange]

43-46

good run

[herr]

8:43 is a pretty good time trial. He ran alot of the last part of the race by himself

[king99]

4:15/4:28 rough way to go and somewhat predictable, as he could probably not feel like he could be that disconnected back at 4:20, so went out too fast

[EDB]

~3 seconds from a sub 4, now ~3 seconds from the high school 3200 record.

Edit: Also this announcer/interviewer is truly awful

[2togo]

4:15/4:28 rough way to go and somewhat predictable, as he could probably not feel like he could be that disconnected back at 4:20, so went out too fast

That was the big concern. He did a better job of handling the pace this time around versus NBON last year, but it was still a little too fast.

[king99]

a LITTLE too fast?

when you positive split by 13 seconds, you are out way too fast and over your head

[bongturk]

he was following a pacesetter who ran the first mile too fast. i thought there would be quite a few more runners in the race. having someone else to chase during the last part of the race might have helped him. still a pretty good run off that really fast first mile. i'm not sure how many guys can go with him at new balance but cheserek has put up some pretty fast races so far.

[skurey]

Still think it's impressive. Didn't he go out in 4:17 outdoors and crash to 8:5x?

[Crystazul]

a LITTLE too fast?

when you positive split by 13 seconds, you are out way too fast and over your head

In all fairness, his pacer stuck right behind Lagat for a while...

[king99]

Ohh, it IS impressive, but the thing about having someone to chase is not accurate, he had nothing left

he only needed 66 for last 400 correct? to run 8:40? and ran almost 68.x?

I was getting all info second hand

[Cocakula]

That announcer was just terrible, it was painful listening to him.

Kind of annoyed the camera man decided to have a close up of Lagat hunched over while Lukas was running his last lap.

The first mile was a bit fast, he was on pace to run 8:30!

[2togo]

a LITTLE too fast?

when you positive split by 13 seconds, you are out way too fast and over your head

Who knows his magic number, but maybe 2 seconds slower through the mile and he doesn't have such a drastic positive split...the split isn't directly proportionate to the number of seconds he was too fast.

Ohh, it IS impressive, but the thing about having someone to chase is not accurate, he had nothing left

he only needed 66 for last 400 correct? to run 8:40? and ran almost 68.x?

I was getting all info second hand

He needed a 30s 200 to run 8:40.

[schafer]

Lukas:
#3 AT indoor mile behind Webb and Hunt
#4 AT indoor 2mile behind Nelson, Merrick and Lindgren

before June:
8:36
3:58

[palimmer]

the Armory was terrific tonight.... really was.. a very knowledgeable but sparse crowd... :) glad I went.

[herr]

Finally, herr, your referred to how often those raw performances are duplicated, but that applies to the WRs, not Lindgren, Ryun and Heald's performances. Lindgren and Heald's performances still have yet to be exceeded by high schoolers, and Ryun's has been exactly once. That's the other piece that makes them so mindblowing; STILL nobody can duplicate them.

I believe a 17 year old just ran 12:53 in Stuttgart last week--indoors. 4 seconds or so off the current world mark. Odds are, that guy can run faster than 8:40 for two miles

The gene pool is much bigger now than it was in Lindgren and Ryun's day

[Cocakula]

Except that kenyan is a lot closer to 21 than 17

[TRACKCOACHMRC]

Wonder if he'll end up in New Jersey :rolleyes:

[palimmer]

uncalled for. :(

[Zat0pek]

I believe a 17 year old just ran 12:53 in Stuttgart last week--indoors. 4 seconds or so off the current world mark. Odds are, that guy can run faster than 8:40 for two miles

The gene pool is much bigger now than it was in Lindgren and Ryun's day

Herr, you've been around enough - both the sport and internationally - that you surely don't put any stock in Kenyan ages, do you?

I was once told by a Kenyan who went on to become a WR holder and WC gold medalist that he really had no idea how old he was. He said he had a rough idea, probably within about three years, but was about it.

He said that if the Kenyan government doesn't have a birth record - which is true as often as not - when you leave the country for the first time, they simply assign you the age of 18 for your passport. They use your claimed date of birth and then just assign whatever year would make you 18. Might be 15, might be 23, but your passport will show 18.

[kingcoe]

Herr, you've been around enough - both the sport and internationally - that you surely don't put any stock in Kenyan ages, do you?

I was once told by a Kenyan who went on to become a WR holder and WC gold medalist that he really had no idea how old he was. He said he had a rough idea, probably within about three years, but was about it.

He said that if the Kenyan government doesn't have a birth record - which is true as often as not - when you leave the country for the first time, they simply assign you the age of 18 for your passport. They use your claimed date of birth and then just assign whatever year would make you 18. Might be 15, might be 23, but your passport will show 18.

I've always been so surprised by this although I've certainly heard this said. The thing is it really just shows how unimportant age is to them as it seems like it wouldn't be hard to remember how many summers a child had been through (or winters, harvests, etc) and then the child could start remembering as they got older if the parents lost track. Really implies an interesting lack of caring about age.