NXN NY Team predictions

[RacingInTheStreetsx2]

Which teams look to be the best in NY this year??

[Eva N]

I would say Shaker, followed by Warwick, FM, and North Rockland. Rush-Henrietta and Saratoga could potentially contend... but I'd be surprised if NY's NXN representation doesn't come from those four teams.

Here's the returning XC speed ratings (approximate average) for those 6 teams, with relevant (showing improvement) track results from this past Spring. Track results converted to 1600/3200 where necessary.

Shaker

Libruk 174 (4:24)
Gilboy 170 (9:39 SC)
Foster 170 (4:32 / 9:52)
Marthy 169 (4:32 / 9:49)
Vallecorsa 167 (9:36)
Hausamann (9:44) - not sure if he runs XC
Mellon (4:35) - not sure if he runs XC
Delago (1:55 / 4:32) - not sure if he runs XC.
Recchia (4:35 / 9:52)


Warwick

Luthin 183 (4:12 / 9:06)
Paez 169 (3:05 1200m split)
Grandinalli 168 (4:29)
Sullivan 168 (4:33)
Parrelli 166 (9:56)
Farinella 165


FM

McGurrin 180 (4:22)
Roache 180 (9:21)
Strong 165 (171 at Sectionals) (4:40 / 10:13 SC)
Thomas 164 (4:36 / 9:58)
Veilleux 155 (10:29)
C. Farrell 153
Billinson (10:19)


North Rockland

Naglieri 179 (9:43 SC)
Bien-Aimee 173 (1:56 800m)
Bernard 169 (9:58 SC)
Mendez 159 (4:22)
Andre 157 (1:53 800m)
Collins 154


RHS

Kozyra 173 (9:32)
Burke 171 (178 at States) (4:30i)
Sweeney 159 (4:34)
Raymond 167
Jones 154
Watson (4:28) - not sure if he runs XC
M. Burke (8th grade) (10:01)


Saratoga

Place 183 (4:20 / 9:21)
Wegner 178 (9:36)
Fairley 164
Williams 158

[RacingInTheStreetsx2]

Your also forgetting Burnt-Hills who will be very strong again as well. Otis is returning NY regional champ and they will also put up a fight for those top two spots. NY doesn't seem to be as strong coming into this year as in recent years but it still looks to be very competitive between these 7 teams mentioned. Are there any other teams that could contend for an NXN birth?

[xcalum]

Your also forgetting Burnt-Hills who will be very strong again as well. Otis is returning NY regional champ and they will also put up a fight for those top two spots. NY doesn't seem to be as strong coming into this year as in recent years but it still looks to be very competitive between these 7 teams mentioned. Are there any other teams that could contend for an NXN birth?

I'd keep my eye on Connetquot. Might depend on whether Litts runs XC. I don't see an XC history for him on Tullyrunners.com but anybody who can run under 10 minutes for 2 miles should definitely run XC.

[Eva N]

Your also forgetting Burnt-Hills who will be very strong again as well. Otis is returning NY regional champ and they will also put up a fight for those top two spots.

Well... Otis is a phenomenal talent and just about a lock to complete a 5-year sweep of "Runner of the Year" honors for his class (not sure this has been done before), but they really don't have that much behind him compared to last season. Here's a comparison:

Going into 2009:

Otis: 9:09 3200
Maughan 9:37 3200 (indoors), 4:22 mile
Pezzulo: 9:53 3200
C. Fernandez 1:55 800 (split)


Going into 2010:

Otis: 9:03 3200 (converted)
Chapman 9:57 3200
Herkenham 10:07 3200
D. Fernandez 10:10 3000SC
Girard 10:15 3200
Terbush 4:39 1600

So they have perhaps some better depth going into 2010, but nobody close to filling Maughan's shoes as a #2. Chapman and Herkenham do seem to be on a steep improvement curve, but Shaker may well put 6 or 7 guys in front of BH's #2. BH has potential, no doubt, but that's why I left them off my list.

[John Walton]

"It's a long, long time from May to December, and the days grow short as you reach September."

-lyrics by Kurt Weill and Maxwell Anderson