2012 IHSA 1A Cross Country

[classof2013runner]

I saw that 3A predictions are starting, so I figured I would start up a new thread for 1A. Any early-summer predictions for teams and individuals?

[runoholic]

Here's my analysis of the top 10 teams finishing last year (plus some others I found noteworthy to mention) based mainly on incoming freshmen/returnees.

1. Mt. Zion: They will still be in the game with still some good underclassmen coming back despite a lot of graduates, I think also some good incoming freshmen, and finally Jake Brown's still there to score fiendishly low for good measure. It also might be hard to spot because you can only see six state finishers (and that's because some in-race accident happened to one of their runners, so technically they only had six finishers), but they have one more junior (in addition to Brown) coming back who was their fifth man at sectionals (Timothy McElroy). The only thing about this team that might stop them from another trip to detweiller (and very possibly a good placing) is getting bumped back to 2A.

2. Tolono Unity: As everyone knows, they lose their top five seniors and are only left with their 6 and 7. Nick Godsell's really going to have to step to the plate as essentially their team leader (I know him and he's definitely up to the task). Good news for them is that they start getting incoming freshmen from a middle school team that placed 5th in the IESA 1A state competition last year, including both a Woodard and a Dodds (remember those last names from earlier years? Yeah...). As tracktalkers, we shouldn't hype up pressure on this young group this year, but definitely don't be surprised if they make state this year despite their whole top five being gone.

3. Monticello: They lose everyone except their 4 and 5. And to make matters worse, correct me if I'm wrong, but they don't have any incoming freshmen to compensate for their losses, do they. I'm pretty sure they have people in their JV that can step it up to the plate, but other than that, they don't have much on paper going for them. Their coach is really great, though, so never count them out.

4. St. Thomas Moore: They keep everyone except their number 5. Their 6 and 7 may be quite far back, but they'll have a solid 5th runner one way or another. It's for sure they get a freshman who ran sub 11 in the IESA state (Ashton Hyatt of Edison), and I know one person (I think their 6th guy) had a good track season and ran in the 10:20's. So they're gonna have depth one way or another, especially if Helfrich's healthy. Maybe it's just my bias (those who know me personally will definitely know what I'm talking about), but I'm going to have to call this team ftw. Not saying they're unbeatable (see my Elmwood summary), but they look the best on paper.

5. Tremont: They lose their 1, 3, and 6 but keep everyone else. They'll be set, though, if they can find a 5th guy. Not sure where this 5th guy will come from as I haven't found any incoming freshmen (I admittedly haven't looked super hard in IESA's results, though). But their JV looks promising as their 7th man finished under 17. We'll see.

6. Rochester: They're on the same boat as Tremont. Rochester loses their 1, 2, and 6, and need to muster a 5th guy from somewhere in order to be solid (especially if the Decatur sectional is what it is again). Their 7th man finished in the low 17's, which suggests they could have that JV runner who steps it up, or maybe they have an incoming freshmen.

7. Sparta: Their 1, 2, 3 is gone, as well as their 6th. With only 3 people, things don't look as hot with this team as the other teams who finished in the top 10 last year, but for the simple reason that surprise is a great factor in Illinois XC, we should not count them out by any means.

8. Elmwood: All I have to say (as someone who admittedly isn't well acquainted with this area) is that they're gonna be locked and loaded for a trophy with all 7 coming back with even more freshmen coming in as well. I would rank this team second behind STM. And with their depth, they can afford injuries/individual bad races unlike most 1A teams.

9. Aurora Christian: They only keep their 2, 3, and 6 out of the six that ran at state, sectionals, and regionals (I looked at them all and only counted the same six guys who raced despite having eight on their roster). If someone can shed light on this (as well as any incoming freshmen/JV returnees they got), it would be wonderful. I'm sorry for not knowing as much about this school as I do STM or Tolono.

10. Ottawa Marquette: Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I count six people coming back out of their varsity that ran state last year, with only their number one gone. Definitely watch for this team next year. Someone else who knows more about this school feel free to chip in any other knowledge that they know besides this (which is right there enough to conclude that they'll be in the hunt for a trophy).

Other schools I feel like mentioning based on biases of mine:

Rock Island Alleman: I of course live miles from the quad, but I've visited there and know a couple people there--no runners persay, but I still felt a twitch of curiosity as I checked what they had going for them even though they didn't finish in the top 10. They get all their guys back except their 3rd (one of the only schools I've mentioned thus far that keep an all-state team leader), so watch for them as well...if they stay 1A, that is, because I think they were another cutoff school like Mt. Zion.

St. Joeseph Ogden: Of course they didn't make state, but we have to be fair to talented programs like St. Joe that got robbed of a qualification due to being in that notorious Decatur sectional and take a look at what they got. As someone who knows the area fairly well, I'll do the honors with them (and someone who knows even more feel free to elaborate). They lose quite a few asset runners (Elkins plus their 2 and 4 regional finishers, though I'm fairly sure Knipfer generally finishes lower in their varsity than 5), but also gain quite a few phenomenal incoming freshmen. Look out for them as they try to get back into the state qualifying mix.

There are, of course, many more teams that deserve mention, the fifteen other teams at state plus other Decatur Sectional victims I haven't mentioned (such as Olney) to name a few. But this post of mine has taken enough time for me to make as is. So I'll leave it to someone more knowledgeable with other Illinois areas and 1A teams to pick up where I started.

[sparky791]

Originally Posted by runoholic

Here's my analysis of the top 10 teams finishing last year (plus some others I found noteworthy to mention) based mainly on incoming freshmen/returnees.

1. Mt. Zion: They will still be in the game with still some good underclassmen coming back despite a lot of graduates, I think also some good incoming freshmen, and finally Jake Brown's still there to score fiendishly low for good measure. It also might be hard to spot because you can only see six state finishers (and that's because some in-race accident happened to one of their runners, so technically they only had six finishers), but they have one more junior (in addition to Brown) coming back who was their fifth man at sectionals (Timothy McElroy). The only thing about this team that might stop them from another trip to detweiller (and very possibly a good placing) is getting bumped back to 2A.

2. Tolono Unity: As everyone knows, they lose their top five seniors and are only left with their 6 and 7. Nick Godsell's really going to have to step to the plate as essentially their team leader (I know him and he's definitely up to the task). Good news for them is that they start getting incoming freshmen from a middle school team that placed 5th in the IESA 1A state competition last year, including both a Woodard and a Dodds (remember those last names from earlier years? Yeah...). As tracktalkers, we shouldn't hype up pressure on this young group this year, but definitely don't be surprised if they make state this year despite their whole top five being gone.

3. Monticello: They lose everyone except their 4 and 5. And to make matters worse, correct me if I'm wrong, but they don't have any incoming freshmen to compensate for their losses, do they. I'm pretty sure they have people in their JV that can step it up to the plate, but other than that, they don't have much on paper going for them. Their coach is really great, though, so never count them out.

4. St. Thomas Moore: They keep everyone except their number 5. Their 6 and 7 may be quite far back, but they'll have a solid 5th runner one way or another. It's for sure they get a freshman who ran sub 11 in the IESA state (Ashton Hyatt of Edison), and I know one person (I think their 6th guy) had a good track season and ran in the 10:20's. So they're gonna have depth one way or another, especially if Helfrich's healthy. Maybe it's just my bias (those who know me personally will definitely know what I'm talking about), but I'm going to have to call this team ftw. Not saying they're unbeatable (see my Elmwood summary), but they look the best on paper.

5. Tremont: They lose their 1, 3, and 6 but keep everyone else. They'll be set, though, if they can find a 5th guy. Not sure where this 5th guy will come from as I haven't found any incoming freshmen (I admittedly haven't looked super hard in IESA's results, though). But their JV looks promising as their 7th man finished under 17. We'll see.

6. Rochester: They're on the same boat as Tremont. Rochester loses their 1, 2, and 6, and need to muster a 5th guy from somewhere in order to be solid (especially if the Decatur sectional is what it is again). Their 7th man finished in the low 17's, which suggests they could have that JV runner who steps it up, or maybe they have an incoming freshmen.

7. Sparta: Their 1, 2, 3 is gone, as well as their 6th. With only 3 people, things don't look as hot with this team as the other teams who finished in the top 10 last year, but for the simple reason that surprise is a great factor in Illinois XC, we should not count them out by any means.

8. Elmwood: All I have to say (as someone who admittedly isn't well acquainted with this area) is that they're gonna be locked and loaded for a trophy with all 7 coming back with even more freshmen coming in as well. I would rank this team second behind STM. And with their depth, they can afford injuries/individual bad races unlike most 1A teams.

9. Aurora Christian: They only keep their 2, 3, and 6 out of the six that ran at state, sectionals, and regionals (I looked at them all and only counted the same six guys who raced despite having eight on their roster). If someone can shed light on this (as well as any incoming freshmen/JV returnees they got), it would be wonderful. I'm sorry for not knowing as much about this school as I do STM or Tolono.

10. Ottawa Marquette: Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I count six people coming back out of their varsity that ran state last year, with only their number one gone. Definitely watch for this team next year. Someone else who knows more about this school feel free to chip in any other knowledge that they know besides this (which is right there enough to conclude that they'll be in the hunt for a trophy).

Other schools I feel like mentioning based on biases of mine:

Rock Island Alleman: I of course live miles from the quad, but I've visited there and know a couple people there--no runners persay, but I still felt a twitch of curiosity as I checked what they had going for them even though they didn't finish in the top 10. They get all their guys back except their 3rd (one of the only schools I've mentioned thus far that keep an all-state team leader), so watch for them as well...if they stay 1A, that is, because I think they were another cutoff school like Mt. Zion.

St. Joeseph Ogden: Of course they didn't make state, but we have to be fair to talented programs like St. Joe that got robbed of a qualification due to being in that notorious Decatur sectional and take a look at what they got. As someone who knows the area fairly well, I'll do the honors with them (and someone who knows even more feel free to elaborate). They lose quite a few asset runners (Elkins plus their 2 and 4 regional finishers, though I'm fairly sure Knipfer generally finishes lower in their varsity than 5), but also gain quite a few phenomenal incoming freshmen. Look out for them as they try to get back into the state qualifying mix.

There are, of course, many more teams that deserve mention, the fifteen other teams at state plus other Decatur Sectional victims I haven't mentioned (such as Olney) to name a few. But this post of mine has taken enough time for me to make as is. So I'll leave it to someone more knowledgeable with other Illinois areas and 1A teams to pick up where I started.

Classifications are out and all borderline schools stay in 1A so you did a nice job with summary. I will have some thoughts later on teams including one you didnt mention that could be a top five team that didnt even make it to state last year.

[runoholic]

Originally Posted by sparky791

Classifications are out and all borderline schools stay in 1A so you did a nice job with summary. I will have some thoughts later on teams including one you didnt mention that could be a top five team that didnt even make it to state last year.

I'm staying tuned for the surprise. Even though I've graduated and will no longer be able to analyze these 1A teams from a first-hand perspective, there's something uncanny about Illinois cross country that's keeping me on these boards for yet another season.

[Col Crunch]

I also have STM as the favorite; but espicially in Class A that means very little.

It is very easy for a school to trophy following a poor performance the year before.

[classof2013runner]

I was looking at the classification changes and I think that a good team to look at this year is Richmond-Burton. They move down from 2A this year. They didn't run very well at Sectionals, finishing 11th at the Belvidere Sectional. However, they return everyone from their varsity team (in fact, they have only one graduation loss on their entire team). They won the Big Northern Conference, which also has Harvard (12th at State) and Byron (15th) as well as 2A school Burlington Central (6th at the Belvidere Sectional). They could easily be a top-10 team at State, if not a trophy contender.

[runoholic]

Originally Posted by Col Crunch

I also have STM as the favorite; but espicially in Class A that means very little.

It is very easy for a school to trophy following a poor performance the year before.

And history has definitely proven that. It makes discussing 1A all the more exciting since the teams who trophy always alternate within the years. Schools like York being awesome all the time can make predictions on these boards tedious at times (no offense, Dukes).

Originally Posted by classof2013runner

I was looking at the classification changes and I think that a good team to look at this year is Richmond-Burton. They move down from 2A this year. They didn't run very well at Sectionals, finishing 11th at the Belvidere Sectional. However, they return everyone from their varsity team (in fact, they have only one graduation loss on their entire team). They won the Big Northern Conference, which also has Harvard (12th at State) and Byron (15th) as well as 2A school Burlington Central (6th at the Belvidere Sectional). They could easily be a top-10 team at State, if not a trophy contender.

Good catch.

[sparky791]

I like the private schools this year to be at the top of Class A in November. Champaign St. Thomas More will come up with a fifth. Could be from Edison, St. Matthew, Philo St. Thomas or anywhere else in 30 mile radius. Rock Island Alleman may be just as good or better with who they return plus one that missed last year that is returning. Ottawa Marquette is third private school that could contend. On the public school side I like Elmwood and Mt. Zion above everyone else. Also echo other comments about Richmond-Burton. Although I dont think they are trophy contenders but should be top ten. Tremont and Rochester should do real well also. Still expect Decatur Sectional to be toughest although I doubt we will see the kind of domination that the sectional put on the state like last year.

As for suprise teams I would look at some of the teams that did not get out of some of the tougher sectionals last year.

[runoholic]

Heyworth (who finished eleventh at state last year) also is gonna be back to make more noise this year. They return their 2,4,5, and 6, their first three running all under 17. And to make things better for them, they get an incoming freshmen who ran 11:31 at the IESA state finals. If that freshmen handles the transition soundly and they can keep a nice, low gap after their first three, then that's a pack of five runners to reckon with. It's not going to be easy for them to replicate 11th with quite a few teams also having strong packs and Zach Quinn no longer around to score low, but there's no question that they have a shot.

[sparky791]

A team that could suprise this year is Shelbyville. They were right with Rochester at regionals but couldn't get out of the tough Decatur Sectional. They have their top nine back and according to honor roll article in paper I read a few weeks ago they had 1600 times this spring of 4:31, 4:32, 4:42, 4:43, 4:47, 4:51, 4:58, 5:01, and 5:11 among those nine and have a 5:02 1600 freshman and a 2:12 800 freshman coming in. Looking at the state results they were the only team in finals of 4 x 800 that had all underclassman in which they ran a 8:10. May not be trophy contender but could be top ten material.