2011 World Champs 100m Final

[kingcoe]

A thought occurs to me:

Since Bolt gets a Wild Card invite to the WC next year the Jamaicans can send 4 athletes. In a perfect world they would send:

Usain Bolt - 9.58
Asafa Powell - 9.72
Nesta Carter - 9.78
Johan Blake - 9.89

Wow. And based on Blake's improvement this year I think we'll be seeing more PRs next year from him.

That's a tough team.

Just think, if the US sends Gay, Dix and Ryun Bailey and they all make the final if Richard Thompson makes the final as well we could have a final with all competitors having PRs under 9.90!!!

[SprintsFTW19]

I predict:
1. Usain Bolt - 9.53. Doesn't break into the 9.4 zone, but that will be for London.
2. Tyson Gay - 9.64. Sets himself apart from the rest of the field and PRs, but still can't catch Bolt.
3/4. Nesta Carter/Asafa Powell - 9.7. Nesta Carter could pull off a big race here with a 9.7 but I still see him finishing third at best in a battle with Powell.
5-8. Crapshoot. So many fast guys emerging. Lemaitre makes the final? Maybe, but unless he drops into the 9.8s by then it will be a fluke and he'll probably be outclassed in the final.

200 final should be less deep, but just as exciting at the top. Gay hasn't been able to run a healthy 200 in a final against Bolt since Osaka 07. If he hits 9.6 again in the 100 and maintains his 44 second 400 strength, I can see him breaking MJ's AR and hitting the 19.27-19.31 range if everything goes right. He's in an awkward position because he's better than everyone else but isn't close to Bolt, so he'll almost be running alone.

[xcrunna]

Originally Posted by SprintsFTW19

I predict:
1. Usain Bolt - 9.53. Doesn't break into the 9.4 zone, but that will be for London.
2. Tyson Gay - 9.64. Sets himself apart from the rest of the field and PRs, but still can't catch Bolt.
3/4. Nesta Carter/Asafa Powell - 9.7. Nesta Carter could pull off a big race here with a 9.7 but I still see him finishing third at best in a battle with Powell.
5-8. Crapshoot. So many fast guys emerging. Lemaitre makes the final? Maybe, but unless he drops into the 9.8s by then it will be a fluke and he'll probably be outclassed in the final.

200 final should be less deep, but just as exciting at the top. Gay hasn't been able to run a healthy 200 in a final against Bolt since Osaka 07. If he hits 9.6 again in the 100 and maintains his 44 second 400 strength, I can see him breaking MJ's AR and hitting the 19.27-19.31 range if everything goes right. He's in an awkward position because he's better than everyone else but isn't close to Bolt, so he'll almost be running alone.

This looks about right. The surefire medalists(if healthy...BIG if) in the 100 and 200 are Gay and Bolt. The bronze medal & finalist spots are incredibly competitive. Powell would seem to have the edge for the bronze in the 100, but he's not exactly been his best under pressure in his career. Guys who wouldn't shock me with a bronze in the 100 would include Walter Dix, Yohan Blake, Nesta Carter, and Richard Thompson. After that, there are so many good, but not great guys like Martina, Lemaitre, Ryan and Daniel Bailey. Any of those guys could make the final, but I'd be pretty shocked barring a breakout season if any could nab a bronze.
The 200 will have a great final, but with slightly less fierce competition to make the final. Dix, Blake, and Lemaitre are a little better comparatively in the 200. Bolt and Gay are there at the top. Spearmon is a contender with the way he finishes. Ryan Bailey, Martina and Thompson have run the 200 with success, too. Basically, add in Spearmon and drop Powell and Nesta Carter with the rest of the characters doing both.

[kingcoe]

Everyone having a perfect race is such a rarity anything truly can happen. I agree that Bolt and Powell are the obvious frontrunners (duh, huh?) but after that if Powell doesn't show some real fire again next year early on I would begin to wonder if his time was past. I could be wrong, its just a hunch really. If his game isn't fully on Carter, Dix and Blake will be waiting and like you said you can't discount Daniel Bailey and Thompson. In 2009 Bailey was making real strides and in '08 Thompson won an Olympic silver for friggin' sake running 9.89.

The run the race for a reason. On any day, anything can happen and this race has everything going for it. It could truly be the greatest 100m race ever run.