EMASS XC Girls Sectionals

[Rustamon]

Separate thread for the girls as the other EMASS sectional thread seems focused on the boys. Predictions? OK, I'll start:

D I
Weymouth (wins with better 2-4)
Haverhill
Newton South
Andover (coming on strong)

D II
Lincoln Sudbury
Chelmsford (tight split)
Franklin (fifth runner?)
Needham (tight split)

D III
Whitman Hanson (Best in MA? Baker twins and strong supporting cast)
Wellesley (Fouda inspires)
Notre Dame
Oliver Ames

D IV (race of the day)
Bishop Feehan (Best in MA?)
Dennis Yarmouth (Will O'Dea hold back for AS)
Pembroke (may slip into second)
Hingham

D V (second race of the day)
Weston (Best in MA? need 4 and 5 to stay tough)
Hamilton-Wenham (always tough, could win, tight split)
Martha's Vineyard (tight split)
Pentucket/Coyle Cassidy (pick 'em)

D VI
Ursuline
Dover Sherborne
West Bridgewater (tending up)
Bishop Fenwick (4th and 5th runners?)

[mcrun33]

Originally Posted by Rustamon

Separate thread for the girls as the other EMASS sectional thread seems focused on the boys. Predictions? OK, I'll start:

D I
Weymouth (wins with better 2-4)
Haverhill
Newton South
Andover (coming on strong)

D II
Lincoln Sudbury
Chelmsford (tight split)
Franklin (fifth runner?)
Needham (tight split)

D III
Whitman Hanson (Best in MA? Baker twins and strong supporting cast)
Wellesley (Fouda inspires)
Notre Dame
Oliver Ames

D IV (race of the day)
Bishop Feehan (Best in MA?)
Dennis Yarmouth (Will O'Dea hold back for AS)
Pembroke (may slip into second)
Hingham

D V (second race of the day)
Weston (Best in MA? need 4 and 5 to stay tough)
Hamilton-Wenham (always tough, could win, tight split)
Martha's Vineyard (tight split)
Pentucket/Coyle Cassidy (pick 'em)

D VI
Ursuline
Dover Sherborne
West Bridgewater (tending up)
Bishop Fenwick (4th and 5th runners?)

I think DI will be a war, with Lowell, Andover, Peabody, Brookline (sleeper), AB, and Lexington fighting it out for the last 1-2 spots. I don't see the wildcard coming from another division, as Needham is the 4th ranked DII team and Brookline the 9th ranked DI team, and they are pretty similar teams.

[oracle]

Originally Posted by Rustamon

Separate thread for the girls as the other EMASS sectional thread seems focused on the boys. Predictions? OK, I'll start:

D I
Weymouth (wins with better 2-4)
Haverhill
Newton South
Andover (coming on strong)

D II
Lincoln Sudbury
Chelmsford (tight split)
Franklin (fifth runner?)
Needham (tight split)

D III
Whitman Hanson (Best in MA? Baker twins and strong supporting cast)
Wellesley (Fouda inspires)
Notre Dame
Oliver Ames

D IV (race of the day)
Bishop Feehan (Best in MA?)
Dennis Yarmouth (Will O'Dea hold back for AS)
Pembroke (may slip into second)
Hingham

D V (second race of the day)
Weston (Best in MA? need 4 and 5 to stay tough)
Hamilton-Wenham (always tough, could win, tight split)
Martha's Vineyard (tight split)
Pentucket/Coyle Cassidy (pick 'em)

D VI
Ursuline
Dover Sherborne
West Bridgewater (tending up)
Bishop Fenwick (4th and 5th runners?)

The race of the day is EMass D1. While it may not have the best teams in the state (which are in the state-level D2) eight of the top thirteen state-D1 ranked teams are in the race. I agree though that the second best race of the day is EMass D5 with the Weston/HW matchup. I don't see Feehan having any difficulty at all with DY in the D4 race, regardless of how hard O'Dea goes.

Other than Weymouth, and even they have to be careful, the rest of EMass D1 is too close to call. I did a little mock race of my own (probably with many mistakes) but the numbers came out like:

1-Weymouth (79)
2-Haverhill (120)
3-Newton South (121)
4-Lexington (122)
(wc)5 - AB (128)
6 - Peabody (132)
7 - Lowell (133)
8 - Andover (148)

I had Andover a little lower because of their performance in the MVC meet where they got knocked off by Lowell.

EMass D3 will be a good one as well. WH will blow away the field, but there looks to be a very tight race for the last three AS spots. I think Wellesley's lack of depth will hurt them in a large race and they may have difficulty getting past OA, NDA, and CC and North Attleboro. Natick might even join the fray. My picks would be OA, CC, and Wellesley to join WH.

[Rustamon]

Originally Posted by oracle

The race of the day is EMass D1. While it may not have the best teams in the state (which are in the state-level D2) eight of the top thirteen state-D1 ranked teams are in the race. I agree though that the second best race of the day is EMass D5 with the Weston/HW matchup. I don't see Feehan having any difficulty at all with DY in the D4 race, regardless of how hard O'Dea goes.

Other than Weymouth, and even they have to be careful, the rest of EMass D1 is too close to call. I did a little mock race of my own (probably with many mistakes) but the numbers came out like:

1-Weymouth (79)
2-Haverhill (120)
3-Newton South (121)
4-Lexington (122)
(wc)5 - AB (128)
6 - Peabody (132)
7 - Lowell (133)
8 - Andover (148)

I had Andover a little lower because of their performance in the MVC meet where they got knocked off by Lowell.

EMass D3 will be a good one as well. WH will blow away the field, but there looks to be a very tight race for the last three AS spots. I think Wellesley's lack of depth will hurt them in a large race and they may have difficulty getting past OA, NDA, and CC and North Attleboro. Natick might even join the fray. My picks would be OA, CC, and Wellesley to join WH.

With a handle like yours, Oracle, we should all pay close attention. I will defer to you on the D I calls, except for the race of the day, preferring to bestow that moniker on the races involving the best teams in the state. But for Whitman Hanson, these are all in AS D2 (EMASS D IV,V,VI).

I still like the D IV race for the individual talent O'Dea and Savage juxtaposed with perennial great team of BF. Can they get Powell, McNulty or Svensen to go with them and break up the pack? I suspect the BF girls are way too disciplined for that. Will they leave too much on the course for a repeat performance the following week in the AS D2 race? Who knows? Better chance of that...

I think CC is a savvy pick to make it through in D III. Others?

[Rustamon]

A couple of observations from the MSTCA Invitational yesterday (and in light of the pending EMASS Sectionals coming next weekend).

1. Haverhill D I, Franklin D II and Oliver Ames D III come to run but almost none of their respective EMASS Sectional competition shows up. How will these girls hold up over the next two weekends?

2. O'Dea takes her race (D 2) easily. Her main competition (only competition?) for the individual sectional title (Savage - Pembroke) doesn't run.

3. While Dennis Yarmouth and Hingham both run their first teams, the team they need to beat - Bishop Feehan - runs well while resting their top runners.

What's the best strategy? Of the top ten girls(current Milesplit rankings) O'Dea is the only one to run this weekend. Of the top ten ranked teams (MSTCA) only two for each All state division bring their top girls and run to win (Franklin and Haverhill in AS D1 and Dennis-Yarmouth and Medfield in AS D2). Will this help or hurt their chances next week? The week after?

[oldmiler]

Originally Posted by Rustamon

A couple of observations from the MSTCA Invitational yesterday (and in light of the pending EMASS Sectionals coming next weekend).

3. While Dennis Yarmouth and Hingham both run their first teams, the team they need to beat - Bishop Feehan - runs well while resting their top runners.

That was not Hinghams 1st team. Looks like they have McConville back and were testing her out. I'd be surprised if they didn't make AllStates now.
and realistically noone is beating Feehan in D4. Its possible those other coaches were planning on AS instead.

[mcrun33]

My responses...

1. Haverhill D I, Franklin D II and Oliver Ames D III come to run but almost none of their respective EMASS Sectional competition shows up. How will these girls hold up over the next two weekends?
-- I'm sure they will hold up just fine. Those three teams are coached by some of the best coaches in Mass. (I believe all former BG Coaches of the Year if I'm not mistaken) and always seem to be there in the end. If they needed a race, their coaches got them one. The Haverhill seniors didn't race, I'm guessing for SAT's, but I'm sure they worked out appropriately instead.

2. O'Dea takes her race (D 2) easily. Her main competition (only competition?) for the individual sectional title (Savage - Pembroke) doesn't run.
-- O'Dea has raced quite a bit, but who knows how hard she needed to run to win by even a minute. I think that course runs slow now, and 18:50 is cruising. She'll be tough to beat, even by Savage, whose best time was run on the Patriot League meet course, one that most believe is fast. I actually think the top BF girls are in the running for individual titles as well, although they may forgo them this weekend for packing it in.

3. While Dennis Yarmouth and Hingham both run their first teams, the team they need to beat - Bishop Feehan - runs well while resting their top runners.
-- If DY and Hingham are trying to beat BF, they will be sorely disappointed. I think those teams should be more focused on Pembroke, Medfield, Hopkinton, and Marblehead, since Feehan puts 5-7 on their #2's.

What's the best strategy? Of the top ten girls(current Milesplit rankings) O'Dea is the only one to run this weekend. Of the top ten ranked teams (MSTCA) only two for each All state division bring their top girls and run to win (Franklin and Haverhill in AS D1 and Dennis-Yarmouth and Medfield in AS D2). Will this help or hurt their chances next week? The week after?

-- There isn't a best strategy. I think you're seeing the top kids skip MSTCA now for several reasons. 1- there are tons of invites to go to during the season that give a better experience. We have been lucky enough to go to Paul Short, Thetford, Brown, and we might try Manchester, Amherst, Hartford, or Ocean State next year. 2- the stories are getting around about mistakes being made by meet management with running the course long, and now, too short. I know in the back of my mind I want to avoid such a debacle a week before the state meet. 3- So many top teams are going to NXN or Footlocker now, racing 5 wekeend in a row seems crazy. Maybe those kids that did race have no postseason plans.

[Rustamon]

Originally Posted by mcrun33

My responses...

1. Haverhill D I, Franklin D II and Oliver Ames D III come to run but almost none of their respective EMASS Sectional competition shows up. How will these girls hold up over the next two weekends?
-- I'm sure they will hold up just fine. Those three teams are coached by some of the best coaches in Mass. (I believe all former BG Coaches of the Year if I'm not mistaken) and always seem to be there in the end. If they needed a race, their coaches got them one. The Haverhill seniors didn't race, I'm guessing for SAT's, but I'm sure they worked out appropriately instead.

2. O'Dea takes her race (D 2) easily. Her main competition (only competition?) for the individual sectional title (Savage - Pembroke) doesn't run.
-- O'Dea has raced quite a bit, but who knows how hard she needed to run to win by even a minute. I think that course runs slow now, and 18:50 is cruising. She'll be tough to beat, even by Savage, whose best time was run on the Patriot League meet course, one that most believe is fast. I actually think the top BF girls are in the running for individual titles as well, although they may forgo them this weekend for packing it in.

3. While Dennis Yarmouth and Hingham both run their first teams, the team they need to beat - Bishop Feehan - runs well while resting their top runners.
-- If DY and Hingham are trying to beat BF, they will be sorely disappointed. I think those teams should be more focused on Pembroke, Medfield, Hopkinton, and Marblehead, since Feehan puts 5-7 on their #2's.

What's the best strategy? Of the top ten girls(current Milesplit rankings) O'Dea is the only one to run this weekend. Of the top ten ranked teams (MSTCA) only two for each All state division bring their top girls and run to win (Franklin and Haverhill in AS D1 and Dennis-Yarmouth and Medfield in AS D2). Will this help or hurt their chances next week? The week after?

-- There isn't a best strategy. I think you're seeing the top kids skip MSTCA now for several reasons. 1- there are tons of invites to go to during the season that give a better experience. We have been lucky enough to go to Paul Short, Thetford, Brown, and we might try Manchester, Amherst, Hartford, or Ocean State next year. 2- the stories are getting around about mistakes being made by meet management with running the course long, and now, too short. I know in the back of my mind I want to avoid such a debacle a week before the state meet. 3- So many top teams are going to NXN or Footlocker now, racing 5 wekeend in a row seems crazy. Maybe those kids that did race have no postseason plans.

Thanks for the thoughtful post. I will stay out of the debate over the MSTCA Invitational. There do seem to be real differences in how much racing some kids can tolerate and still perform at their peak.