2012 Track Season

[FastTrack]

So, who does everyone think will be the top 3000m girls runners in 4A tomorrow? My guess:
1. Allison Gregg
2. Ashlynn Yokom
3. Anna Peer
4. Courtney Martin
5. Meg Richardson

For guys? My guess:
1. Cole Decker
2. Matt Butler
3. Josh Evans
4. Jacob Aune
5. Jason Thomas

I'm really interested to see how the guys race goes down. Will Cole try the same strategy as he did at Drake? If he does, can Matt Butler stick with him long enough this time to out-kick him this time? Aune gets better and better as the season progresses, and can run a 50 sec 400m. Thomas also has a great kick. Should be a great race.

[oricfan]

It won't be Meg Richardson at 5th. She didn't run it at district. She has really had an up/down and more down than up season in the 3 and City decided to go with the 1500 and 800 relay legs for her. I could see King or Yokum winning. Also wouldn't be surprised to see a Dowling runner in the top 2. For sure think they'll get one in the top 5.

It seems there's a bit of anti-Dowling bias in the last day or two's team posts. Is that DM folks not liking them because they can recruit kids? Their surprisingly poor showing at Drake? I am assuming Drake was an outlier (weren't several of them sick?) and they'll be back to form this weekend, which for several years has meant great times and placings. I think they are the deepest most balanced team. Valley and Waukee will get several 1st and 2nds but I think Dowling's depth across the full slate of events will win out.

[V0two]

Jason Thomas is not entered in the 3200. Can't disagree with your other picks, though. However, it will be very interesting to see how a different day weather-wise effects the race. Not nearly as easy to go out and push the pace fom the start when it's hot and windy. I still like Decker but I think he might wait a bit longer to make his run for the tape rather than take it early.

[4A-runfan]

Originally Posted by IowaRunner4Life

I am revising my predictions as well and put Valley as the State Champion on the girls side. Saggau alone could net 40 points, and Downs will also place high in significant races. I agree with 4A Run-Fan, Waukee should be the next best team after Valley. I also agree with runfan that Urbandale is going to run well at State and more than likely will finish in the top 3. I still place Iowa City High above Dowling.

In conference meets, Waukee beat Valley: 208-182 and Dowling beat Urbandale: 153-130. If the two meet results were combined across all events and scored to 8 places then Waukee wins 132 to Dowling's 121 to Valley's 119. Urbandale gets 93. The fact that Valley closed the spread on Waukee in the 12-team meet shows they have more true-stud points that will pay off more in the state meet. But, Urbandale fell further behind Dowling in the larger meet, so don't count on them. I just don't see them as a top 3 squad @ state. Maybe 5th, likely 6th/7th and possibly still behind Roosevelt.

[runfan]

Originally Posted by 4A-runfan

In conference meets, Waukee beat Valley: 208-182 and Dowling beat Urbandale: 153-130. If the two meet results were combined across all events and scored to 8 places then Waukee wins 132 to Dowling's 121 to Valley's 119. Urbandale gets 93. The fact that Valley closed the spread on Waukee in the 12-team meet shows they have more true-stud points that will pay off more in the state meet. But, Urbandale fell further behind Dowling in the larger meet, so don't count on them. I just don't see them as a top 3 squad @ state. Maybe 5th, likely 6th/7th and possibly still behind Roosevelt.

Good points here but Saggau only competed in 2 events at the conference meet (400 and 800) but will run 4 events at State and she is likely to be the best runner in each of her events. I would say Waukee is one of the best dual meet teams in the State and will score in many events at State but likely in the 5-8th place outside of the Shuttle Hurdle, high jump, 800M and 100M Hurdle and I don't think they will score in the 400H event. I have Dowling 1st, ICH 2nd, Valley 3rd, Waukee 4th, ICW 5th, Roosevelt 6th and Urbandale could do well (good sprinters, hurdlers and sprint relays) and I stated this putting them in contention for 5-6 place overall.

General question for all here, with the 2 girls from Roosevelt out of the State Meet, does the IGHSAU fill their slots with the 13th or 14th fastest qualifier or do they leave their lanes open since they scratched after the official State entry deadline?

[oricfan]

I don't know much in the way of details from the league meets so maybe that is a tell in favor of Waukee and Valley. Looking at District results and trying to guess where folks might beef up, I've thought Dowling looked the best of the DM area teams. Runfan, you don't mention Valley in that scoring. Here's my Valley and state question. There have been a number of years where they have seemed like a real contender coming in and then underperformed. Often nailing a few events spectacularly, but not tons as a team, except for their one championship year. That makes me a bit hesitant to jump on their bandwagon. Why has that been do folks think? Over estimating their potential? I don't think three DM teams will take the top 3 spots. I think City or West will get in there somewhere.

[runfan]

Originally Posted by oricfan

I don't know much in the way of details from the league meets so maybe that is a tell in favor of Waukee and Valley. Looking at District results and trying to guess where folks might beef up, I've thought Dowling looked the best of the DM area teams. Runfan, you don't mention Valley in that scoring. Here's my Valley and state question. There have been a number of years where they have seemed like a real contender coming in and then underperformed. Often nailing a few events spectacularly, but not tons as a team, except for their one championship year. That makes me a bit hesitant to jump on their bandwagon. Why has that been do folks think? Over estimating their potential? I don't think three DM teams will take the top 3 spots. I think City or West will get in there somewhere.

I left Valley out, I have them 3rd, post is fixed above....regarding Valley at State, they seem to under perform year after year and in my opinion, it's been a training issue, too many races and not enough rest. Injuries have certainly hurt them as well. This year, Valley could have used Kate Maxcy and Nicole Criner in the distance events but they are not running this spring.

[4A-runfan]

Originally Posted by runfan

Good points here but Saggau only competed in 2 events at the conference meet (400 and 800) but will run 4 events at State and she is likely to be the best runner in each of her events. I would say Waukee is one of the best dual meet teams in the State and will score in many events at State but likely in the 5-8th place outside of the Shuttle Hurdle, high jump, 800M and 100M Hurdle and I don't think they will score in the 400H event. I have Dowling 1st, ICH 2nd, Waukee 3rd, ICW 4th, Roosevelt 5th and Urbandale could do well (good sprinters, hurdlers and sprint relays) and I stated this putting them in the 5-6 place overall.

General question for all here, with the 2 girls from Roosevelt out of the State Meet, does the IGHSAU fill their slots with the 13th or 14th fastest qualifier or do they leave their lanes open since they scratched after the official State entry deadline?

Yes, true on Saggau, but she also LOST both of those events in a mostly mediocre conference (dual+Ames). At state, Saggau is in only 1 open event. So, she's not "worth" 40 points. She definitely does beyond her share in the D-med, but I have a tough time seeing her anchor all 3 of her relays to victory as well as winning the open 8.

Also, Downs has a history of being all over the place in LJ and her qualifying time in the open 100 was at Waukee where they turned the event around to take advantage of 25 mph winds since they have 2 camera systems.

With all this, and after re-reading your post, I'm glad to see that you did not have Valley in your top 3. I will put Waukee ahead of Dowling all day though.

The Roosevelt lanes stay unfilled. They are still state qualifiers, just not state competitors.

[runfan]

Originally Posted by 4A-runfan

Yes, true on Saggau, but she also LOST both of those events in a mostly mediocre conference (dual+Ames). At state, Saggau is in only 1 open event. So, she's not "worth" 40 points. She definitely does beyond her share in the D-med, but I have a tough time seeing her anchor all 3 of her relays to victory as well as winning the open 8.

Also, Downs has a history of being all over the place in LJ and her qualifying time in the open 100 was at Waukee where they turned the event around to take advantage of 25 mph winds since they have 2 camera systems.

With all this, and after re-reading your post, I'm glad to see that you did not have Valley in your top 3. I will put Waukee ahead of Dowling all day though.

The Roosevelt lanes stay unfilled. They are still state qualifiers, just not state competitors.

There is a reason Saggau did not run well at conference and she scratched in the 1500M but she has the ability to win the open 800 (and did at Drake), anchor the 4X800 to victory (as she did at Drake), she will anchor the Distance Medley (another 800M) and either anchor the sprint medley but likely will run the 4X400 so 4 wins is definitely possible. Waukee does run with the wind for early season meets to qualify for Drake as other teams do, however, they do not have 2 FAT camera systems so all times run with the wind are hand timed. State qualifying procedures (districts) do not allow you to change the start finish lines, all times must be FAT in 4A.

[4A-runfan]

Originally Posted by runfan

There is a reason Saggau did not run well at conference and she scratched in the 1500M but she has the ability to win the open 800 (and did at Drake), anchor the 4X800 to victory (as she did at Drake), she will anchor the Distance Medley (another 800M) and either anchor the sprint medley but likely will run the 4X400 so 4 wins is definitely possible. Waukee does run with the wind for early season meets to qualify for Drake as other teams do, however, they do not have 2 FAT camera systems so all times run with the wind are hand timed. State qualifying procedures (districts) do not allow you to change the start finish lines, all times must be FAT in 4A.

Unless you were there to substantiate this, I will stand by my source that said they turned it around.

Consider the 100m Dash: Downs runs 12.25, but ran 12.80 prelims and 13.34 finals at Drake. 5 girls under 13.00 including 3 of the top 4 times in the state. Yet, only 1 of those 5 girls (Downs) even qualified for Drake as a top 32 athlete in Iowa (16/32 were 4A).

Then, in the 100m Hurdles: 4 of the top 9 times ... seems pretty suspect to me.

Full results here by the way: Waukee district
http://www.aspimeetz.com/Results/Res...0c44c2b43ec048
Waukee 213 to Valley's 202.5


WOW, crazy back story on Saggau. Maybe this ties in to why Maxcy didn't come out this year.